Spain well set up for games against the bigger names
Germany need to make their chances count
This is the business end of the World Cup group stages where games can have a real sense of jeopardy. This feels like such a big game at such an early stage of this World Cup and it could potentially be one of the games of the tournament.
Hard to score without the ball
With just three games, World Cup group stages are a small sample size. Germany did win the xG battle against Japan (3.09 v 1.46), however they regularly looked vulnerable on the counterattack and despite creating plenty of chances, struggled to convert them. It took a penalty from Ilkay Gundogan, who could've had at least one more goal, for them to score.
If they were able to create a similar number of chances against Spain, I'm sure they would fancy themselves to get a result. The issue Germany will have here is that they're not going to have anywhere near the amount of ball they did against Japan (74%).
Spain win price is value
Spain are a team incredibly well set up for games against the bigger nations. Although it wasn't the case against Costa Rica, they do often struggle against teams who sit and play with a low block. Granted, Costa Rica were abysmal but Spain were fantastic and they can do that to teams. It's hard to concede goals when the other team doesn't have the ball.
Spain are currently 2.447/5 on the Exchange and that looks a bet to me. I'd have fancied Spain for a game like this pre-tournament and having had a look at both teams, that opinion hasn't changed. Personally, I would have Spain closer to the 2.111/10 mark, if not shorter and that makes their current price a bet.
Player props offer value in entertaining game
The player prop markets look worth a look in this game. I'd advise waiting on the starting line ups to be announced as there was some surprise that it wasn't Alvaro Morata who started up front for Spain against Costa Rica. The rumour was that he had a small illness. However, if Ferran Torres keeps his spot then he looks great value to score anytime at 3.613/5 on the Exchange.
The German defence didn't cover itself in glory against Japan. Nico Schlotterbeck may well pay the price for a poor performance and find himself on the bench. If that's not the case, he's 11/8 on the Sportsbook to commit two or more fouls. Spain's attackers are capable of running rings around the best defences so that price looks very appealing.
Those two selections in a Bet Builder comes in at around 13/2 and that looks a nice angle into this match. I'm wary of making big readjustments on pre-tournament opinions based on one game but Germany looked vulnerable against Japan and it feels as though Hansi Flick hasn't quite got his team playing to their full potential yet. That makes it hard to side with Germany at the prices.
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