Netherlands v USA: Take a chance on few goals and extra-time drama

Mike Norman
03 December 2022
3:00 min read

Louis van Gaal's side have quietly impressed so far at the World Cup

Netherlands vs USA
Sat 3 Dec, 15:00

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We've reached the Round of 16 stage of the 2022 World Cup with Netherlands first up against USA. Both nations have impressed so far says Mike Norman who expects a very tight game with the possibility of extra-time looming large on Saturday afternoon...

Both sides have impressed in Group stage
USA possibly too big at 4.67/2
Low-scoring pattern to continue
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Dutch getting better with each game

They haven't exactly set the World Cup alight, but Netherlands have been quietly impressive so far in this tournament, topping Group A with a brace of 2-0 victories (over Senegal and Qatar) and a 1-1 draw with a decent Ecuador side.

Star of the show for Louis van Gaal's men has been attacking midfielder Cody Gakpo, the 23-year-old has scored in all three of Netherlands' group games to make him a leading contender to win the Golden Boot.

Apart from Gakpo the Orange Machine have been solid rather than spectacular, and you get the feeling that there's more to come from them, especially from the returning-to-full-fitness Memphis Depay and their flying wing-back Denzel Dumfries.

Runners-up in 2010 and third-place play-off winners four years later, Netherlands have plenty of recent World Cup pedigree, and they'll be desperate to make amends for missing out on the 2018 World Cup by going deep in this tournament.

USA have impressed and look strong

Like Netherlands, USA have impressed also in finishing runners-up to England in Group B.

They were excellent in the first 45 minutes against Wales, undoubtedly the better team when drawing 0-0 with a below-par Three Lions, and they did exactly what they had to do in beating Iran 1-0, controlling and managing the game very impressively.

1280 Gregg Berhalter USA.jpg

Gregg Berhalter's squad is arguably the strongest it's ever been and his preferred starting XI is stacked with players now plying their trade in Europe - not least the Premier League - with plenty of Champions League experience among them.

The Stars and Stripes have reached this stage of the World Cup in three of the last four tournaments, but it's been 20 years since they played a quarter-final game on the world's biggest stage.

Pattern of low-scoring group games to continue

My head says Netherlands at 2.01/1 are the most likely winners - as the Match Odds suggest - but my gut says USA are too big a price at 4.67/2. The Draw can be backed at 3.55/2.

Think of it this way. If Netherlands faced USA four times under exactly the same circumstances as they'll face each other on Saturday, then would you fancy Berhalter's men to win at least once? If yes, then backing the USA at 4.67/2 is the bet for you.

I'm very tempted to say yes, but I also wouldn't be surprised if at least three of those mythical meetings were low-scoring affairs that went right to the wire given that a World Cup quarter-final is at stake.

From six group games played between them, not a single one finished with Over 2.5 Goals paying out, so I think Under 2.5 Goals is a very fair price here at 1.664/6.

And both teams conceded only once in their three group games; Netherlands recording scorelines of 2-0, 1-1 and 2-0, while for the USA it was 1-1, 0-0 and 1-0.

Under 1.5 Goals can be backed at 3.02/1 and is worth a bet in what is likely to be a cagey knock-out game, and if the above low-scoring patterns continues then there's every chance we'll go to extra-time and even penalties.

Either team to win in extra-time can be backed at 5/1 on the Sportsbook, while either team to win on penalties is 4/1. I rather like the former in the hope that we get a dull low-scoring game that bursts into life in extra-time.

Back Under 1.5 Goals @

3.0

Back Either Team to Win in Extra-Time @

5/1

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