France v Poland: Back 7/2 & 7/1 shouts for shot happy French, with 46/1 Bet Builder

Alexander Boyes
04 December 2022
3:00 min read

Decshamps will bring Mbappe and Giroud back in to the XI

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France take on Poland before England's game with Senegal knowing the winners will meet in the quarter-finals. France are odds-on favourites so Alex Boyes digs into the shots markets, finding plenty of evidence that us punters can profit from the true gulf in class between these sides. There's also a huge 46/1 Bet Builder on offer...

France face Poland with the winner meeting England or Senegal
Mbappe and Giroud to combine for our winner
This really will be attack vs defence
Read to the end for our 4.57/2</a></p>">46/1 Bet Builder
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How France qualified for Last-16

World Cup defending champions France safely progressed through Group D as winners, despite suffering a shock defeat to Tunisia in their final group stage match.

After beating both Australia and Denmark, Didier Deschamps chose to make nine changes to their starting XI, including resting Golden Boot hopeful Kylian Mbappe, who did come on in the second half, and you could see his desperation to score; no player had more shots than the young Frenchman despite playing just over half an hour.

Mbappe will surely play the rest of the minutes until France's tournament ends and remains the 13/5 favourite to win the Golden Boot, though he's currently level on three goals with Cody Gakpo (9/1), Marcus Rashford (9/1), Alvaro Morata (11/1) and Enner Valencia - though the latter has headed on home.

France tops all teams (left in the competition) this World Cup when it comes to xG (7.4) and in-turn, big chances created (12), though they have spurned seven of those.

Essentially, they are a huge threat going forward, have one of the best strikers in the world, and all the while, we haven't even mentioned their joint-all time top scorer is in the squad, in Olivier Giroud.

Back Mbappe to win the Golden Boot @

13/5

How Poland qualified for the Last-16

Runners-up in Group C, at one stage it looked like Poland were going to qualify based on fair play, with Mexico ending up on the same number of points.

However, a late Saudi Arabia goal meant the Poles moved through on goal difference, following a very uninspiring final game with Argentina (0-2). It is however their first knockout stage appearance at the World Cup since 1986.

Their tournament so far has been underwhelming, and if it wasn't for goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny, it might be a different story. He's saved two penalties, including one against Saudi Arabia on MD2 when leading 1-0; there's certainly a universe where Poland are already on their way home.

Conspiracy theories aside, they have earned their right to the Last-16 despite netting only twice - the joint-fewest of any side still in the competition (alongside USA).

They've also conceded the highest xG of any side still at the World Cup (6.1), and have one of the busiest 'keepers at the tournament with Szczęsny making more saves per game than any other.

That's right, we've ended up with a tie between the side with the highest xG generated and the highest xG conceded.

We should be in for goals, and if not, then at least a high shot volume from the French.

France v Poland betting

Forgetting the Tunisia game due to the number of changes, both Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud have had a high number of shots between them in their other two games.

Against Australia, they had 12 (Mbappe 7, Giroud 5) with four hitting the target, and both managing to score. In the next match with Denmark, they had eight (Mbappe 6, Giroud 2), with four hitting the target.

They now face a team who faced 23 shots against Argentina in their last game, with 12 of those hitting the target. This match is looking more like France's clash with Australia, who you could argue are a tougher opponent that the Poles at this time.

You can back France to replicate the same and have 12+ shots on target at 9/1. Very enticing.

I think it is a perfect set-up for France's main strikers to profit, and hopefully we will too.

We can bet on the Mbappe and Giroud combined shots on target market, in which they are odds on at 7/10 to have 4+. That price is a little short for the way I play but i imagine that entices a certain bettor already.

From there we move to 13/8 (5+), 7/2 (6+), 7/1 (7+) and 14/1 (8+).

I think this really is a time to take your pick based on how you bet and the price points you go after - i just think the information is there to profit from this deadly duo going after a side with a weak defence and also a lack of desire to hold the ball.

I'll be going after 6+ and 7+ in the hope of profiting from both but knowing if six lands we still come out on top.

France v Poland Bet Builder

Fancy a Bet Builder for this one? Wiith a full range of markets to combine over on the Betfair Sportsbook, let us dig around to find ourselves a winner.

Antoine Griezmann anytime assist (created more chances than any other player after group stages - 11)

BTTS - NO (Poland joint-lowest scorers in Last-16 - 2)

France to have 12+ shots on target (same as Argentina).

Back the above Bet Builder @ a massive

46/1

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