England v Senegal: Three value Bet Builders for Last 16 clash

Paul Higham
04 December 2022
3 min read

Marcus Rashford could have a big say against Senegal

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Paul Higham returns with three more value Bet Builders for England v Senegal in the last 16 of the 2022 World Cup.

Captain Kane to turn provider again
Maguire a big danger at set pieces
Dia & Sarr to lead Senegal charge
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Right then, this is where it all starts to get a bit more serious for Gareth Southgate and his England side as they take on Senegal in the last 16 of the World Cup.

For all the usual moaning after a draw with the USA, England strolled through against Wales and maybe watching the likes of Belgium and Germany go out while France, Spain and Argentina have all struggled at times will convince those critics that Southgate is actually going an OK job.

As England look as good as anyone, have as deep a squad as most and are rightly odds-on favourites to beat the African champions - even though Senegal have to be given the upmost respect.

For the record, I think England have more than enough to win this, but right here we're looking to piece together three value Bet Builders to get stuck into as opposed to just the regular outright markets.

Captain Kane helps England passed stubborn Senegal

Senegal are already missing Sadio Mane but they'll also be without the suspended Idrissa Gueye from the heart of their midfield which could be crucial as he's been part of that midfield screen in front of the defence.

The African champions haven't had much of the ball against either the Netherlands or Ecuador, and missing Gueye will allow midfield runners of the likes of Mason Mount or Jude Bellingham to get forward into dangerous positions.

Senegal have just two clean sheets in 10 competitive outings, conceding in every game in Qatar and giving their opponents plenty of chances - and that's a dangerous trait to have with the quality of finishers England have.

Harry Kane may have failed to score yet but he's got three assists and him dropping deep here will cause Senegal all kinds of problems with those running ahead of him - something they've not dealt with very well in the tournament.

We'll take Kane at 12/5 for another assist here and 5/4 on a Bellingham shot on target as he can take advantage of Senegal's weakened midfield to get forward as he has been doing so far.

And finally, for the icing on the cake we'll take the 6/5 on offer for Senegal to get over 2.5 cards as they did against Qatar and as they should have against the Netherlands when they got two. With the stakes even higher and with plenty of defending two do, three cards seems entirely reasonable.

England win, Kane assist, Senegal over 2.5 cards & Bellingham 1+ shot on target

22/1

Senegal love to shoot & get stuck in

Senegal have been operating a shoot on sight policy at the World Cup - letting fly with 41 efforts on goal in their three games so far, and hitting the target with 11 of those.

Pape Gueye has been their most accurate shooter, hitting the target with two of his three efforts, while the lively Boulaye Dia has had six shots with two on target and Ismaila Sarr eight shots with one on target.

The fact England are such big favourites and should dominate possession leads to decent prices of Sarr at 6/5 and Dia 6/4 to have just 1+ shot on target - and we should get the volume as Senegal's wealth of goal attempts have come mostly when having vastly less possession.

Both Sarr and Dia will shoot given half a chance and you feel that if Senegal are to prosper here these two will have to lead from the front.

And speaking of leading from the front, captain Kalidou Koulibaly will no doubt be wanting to set an example, but I think that will lead to a few more rash challenges than even he usually throws in - as I've not been totally convinced about him either here or for Chelsea.

There could be a lot of different players with pace and trickery running at him, which is not his comfort zone at all, so 11/5 on him giving away 2+ fouls against England's attack looks a value investment.

Bet: Dia & Sarr 1+ Shots on Target & Koulibaly 2+ fouls

15.7

Super subs and set pieces

And finally, back to areas of real strength for the Three Lions and that's in the talent they can leave on the bench and their dangerous set pieces - both of which suit playing against Senegal.

You'd think Phil Foden and Marcus Rashford must start this game, but I'm not 100 percent convinced Southgate won't use them as 'closers' again and look to bring them on against tiring legs.

Either way Rashford and Foden will both see a decent amount of time on the pitch so we'll take them for a modest shot on target each at 4/9 and 8/15 respectively.

Edouard Mendy has had some worrying moments and Senegal in general have not dealt well with corners and crosses into the box - they've conceded two headers from crosses and one tap-in at the back post following a corner.

That players into England's hands and brings our old mate Harry Maguire back into our Bet Builder squad at 5/2 for a shot on target. We'll also back over 5.5 corners at 10/11 to boost our odds.

Rashford, Foden & Maguire 1+ shot on target, over 5.5 England corners

14/1