Argentina v Australia: South Americans to send Socceroos packing

Nathan Joyes
03 December 2022
3:00 min read

Messi to march into quarter-finals

View market

Twitter

Facebook

Australia have defied the odds to reach the knockout stages, but a tie with Argentina looks likely to end that extended stay. Nathan Joyes explains why...

Argentina dominated Mexico and Poland
Australia prevail in very weak group
Australia easily brushed aside against France
Sign up for the Betting.Betfair Daily World Cup Newsletter
Follow our dedicated World Cup Live Blog everyday

Australia's extended stay to be cut short

While everyone is patting Australia on the back for qualifying, there's going to be none of that in this column.

For any Aussies reading, this isn't personal, but the Socceroos wouldn't have made it out of any other group.

Let me start with the France game.

A comprehensive 4-1 victory, which, let's be honest, should have been a wider margin. A total of 22 shots to Australia's four, with just the one on target for the Socceroos, eight corners to one, 40% more completed passes by the French, who also finished with 62% possession.

Yes, Australia may have found themselves in the lead inside ten minutes, but it was all France after that, with the Socceroos failing to hit the target for the remaining 80 minutes.

Pre-tournament, it was a toss up between Tunisia and Australia for third and fourth place, and although Australia came out on top 1-0, neither nation inspired me and Dahmen was a spectator for the vast majority of the second half, not facing a single shot on target.

Next up was Denmark, who were quite frankly horrendous this World Cup - securing a single point against Tunisia - who arguably looked the more dangerous side in their tight tussling opener.

If you had told me Australia would qualify pre-tournament, I'd have been shocked. Impressed, admittedly. However, the opponentthey beat would have been sent packing in any of the other groups in Qatar.

Argentina can replicate French performance

Would Argentina draw against Tunisia? Would they have struggled to beat Denmark?

The answer is simply no to both of those questions - and they've yet to get out of third gear themselves this tournament.

"Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia" I hear you cry - but I'm not having that, either.

Saudi Arabia were superb for 60 minutes in that game. Two pure footballing moments in a five minute period in the second half rattled Argentina, in a result no one saw coming.

Argentina had two disallowed goals in the first half, and there was plenty to be said around Martinez's finish in the 28th minute. If that's allowed, it's simply game over.

I'm glad it wasn't from a purely neutral footballing perspective, as the game went on to produce one of the best World Cup games I've ever seen.

However, that result allowed Argentina to show what they are made of, as they went on to simply brush aside Mexico and Poland - the latter with minimal effort.

How to bulk up Argentina's price

There's no surprise whatsoever to see Argentina as short as 1.201/5 to win. If Australia do have their moment and go ahead as they did against France, I can guarantee you'll hear me throwing out an in-play three point bet.

What is encouraging for the bet I'm going to side with is the fact we've seen Argentina in multiple positions already in this World Cup.

We've seen them frustrated, lose and have no choice but to secure a win. Yet a key theme is that they stay disciplined.

They picked up just the one yellow card against Mexico, as well as Poland, but didn't pick up a single yellow against Saudi Arabia. They focused on their football and never lost their heads - a great trait to have in a World Cup.

Australia, on the other hand, picked up two against Denmark and three against France.

I can see plenty of similarities between the French game and this one, with Argentina having the majority of the ball, moving the ball quicker and playing in and around Australia's final third.

Similar to the French, Argentina have quality all over the park. You don't need me to discuss Messi, but they've shown against Mexico and Poland that they are a team.

Brighton's Alexis Mac Allister, Manchester City's Julian Alvarez and Benfica's Enzo Fernandez have all found the back of the net, and Australia won't be able to cope with the talent spread across Argentina's side.

I'm going to use the Bet Builder option in this one, without trying to get too carried away. The fact you can lock in Argentina to win, over 1.5 match goals and trust Australia to pick up more cards at over evens, is a price which can't be missed.

Argentina to win, over 1.5 goals and Australia most cards (1.5pts)

2.20