World Cup Goalscorer Betting: Back Suárez to net first for Uruguay
After landing a 7/2 winner on Thursday, Infogol's analyst returns, using using expected goals (xG) data to pick out the best goalscorer bets across Friday's three World Cup matches...
"Suárez averaged 0.5 xG per 90 in the difficult South American World Cup qualifying campaign, and against a weaker team in this game, he should get a few chances."
Infogol on Luis Suarez
Stats point to Suarez
Egypt vs Uruguay
Live on BBC
Egypt take on Uruguay in Group A, with Infogol calculating that the South Americans are rightly favourites to win the game, with them having a 57% chance of doing so.
The Uruguayans, led by star striking pair Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani, should prove too strong, with the Barcelona front man expected to be the difference in this game.
Suárez averaged 0.5 xG per 90 in the difficult South American World Cup qualifying campaign, and against a weaker team here, he should get a few chances.
Key man Boutaïb can deliver again
Morocco vs Iran
Live on ITV
Morocco take on Iran in one of the World Cup's less glamourous-looking matches, but don't underestimate either team, with Morocco rated by Infogol as the best African team, and Iran the best Asian team.
Morocco are fancied to edge proceedings (37% chance of winning), with their forward Khalid Boutaïb looking a good bet at 5/1 to open the scoring.
Boutaïb plays his club football in Turkey and was a key player in Morocco's qualifying campaign, averaging 0.9 xG per 90 minutes.
He is the biggest goal threat of the two sides, and so if Morocco are to create chances, they will more than likely fall to him.
Silva can unlock Portuguese defence
Portugal vs Spain
Live on BBC
Portugal take on Spain in the first real mouth-watering game of the World Cup. Even after all of the managerial debacle that has occurred over the last few days involving Spain, they are still fancied to win this game (50% chance).
Spain shared the goals around in qualifying, with Diego Costa, David Silva, Isco and the unselected Alvaro Morata all netting five times.
In such a tight game, the intricacy of the Spain midfield is to be the likely key that unlocks the Portugal defence, and David Silva looks a good bet at 13/5 to provide the finishing touch.
Silva averaged 0.3 xGF per 90 in qualifying, and is the sort of player that is likely to make the difference in the tighter games, so is worth chancing to do so here.
Infogol's World Cup 2018 P/L
P/L: + 3.5pts