Slovenia v England: Back the Three Lions to win to nil

Gareth Southgate oversaw a 2-0 win over Malta in his first game in temporary charge of England
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Gareth Southgate's England head to Slovenia on Tuesday night for their next World Cup 2018 qualifier. Luke Moore previews the betting...


"England are [1.67] favourites to win this game, but they've won their last 14 qualification games, are unbeaten in 31 qualifiers in total and have kept a clean sheet in their last six. Whatever you think about this current iteration of England, that is a formidable record"

Slovenia v England
Tuesday 11 October, 19:45
Live on ITV1


Slovenia

Slovenia started off their World Cup qualifying campaign with a shaky draw against Lithuania, but followed that up with a fine win over Slovakia in Ljubljana on Friday night.

Currently sat third in the qualification group, they last qualified for a major tournament in South Africa in 2010, failing to qualify for the knockout rounds after losing 0-1 to England in the final game of the group stage.

The Slovenians are ranked 67th in the world but boast a handful of good individual players - Atletico Madrid's Jan Oblak is an excellent goalkeeper and midfielder Kevin Kampl won the Austrian double with Red Bull Salzburg before moving on to Bayer Leverkusen via Borussia Dortmund.


England

England find themselves in the middle of a difficult period - caretaker manager Gareth Southgate started his tenure off with a win against Malta at Wembley, but the Three Lions showed a typical lack of coherence and the national side isn't popular with fans.

Despite all the negative feeling, England should still qualify from this group and on to Russia with relative ease, but whether they will be in a position to make an impression on the tournament proper is another question entirely.

Kieran Gibbs has come in to replace the hamstrung Ryan Bertrand.


Match Odds

England are [1.67] favourites to win this game, but they've won their last 14 qualification games, are unbeaten in 31 qualifiers in total and have kept a clean sheet in their last six. Whatever you think about this current iteration of England, that is a formidable record, and Slovenia are unlikely to offer up too much resistance, despite being the home team and having one or two good players.

Slovenia are available at [6.4], and the draw can be backed at [3.95].


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

All things being equal, Unders is the call here. But at only [1.54], it's way too short to be worth backing. I don't much like Overs either, even though it's a chunky-looking [2.42] - England aren't particularly fluent at the moment and I can easily see them being frustrated by their hosts.


Half Time

If Slovenia can indeed frustrate England (and I think they can), then the [2.2] about The Draw in this market is well worth a look. And if one wished to push the boat out a touch further, then 0-0 in the Half Time Score market will be available at slightly higher odds.


England Win to Nil

This is another market I like the look of; on the stats alone England are very likely to win and very likely to keep a clean sheet. Regardless of what happened a year ago in Ljubljana (England emerged 2-3 winners in qualifying for Euro 2016), 6/5 on the Sportsbook remains a decent bet.


Recommended Bet

Back The Draw in the Half Time market at [2.2] or better
Back Yes in England Win To Nil at 6/5


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Luke Moore 2016/17 P/L

Staked: 21pts
Returned: 39.69pts
P/L: +18.69pts

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