England v Sweden: Go low on goals and high on bookings with your Same Game Multi bets

Kyle Walker in action
Kyle Walker and co can be relied on to keep it tight again but there will probably be bookings, says Jamie
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Fresh from a good winner last time out, Jamie Pacheco talks us through the best Same Game Multi bets from England's vital quarter-final clash against Sweden...

"Between October 2017 and the start of the World Cup, Sweden played eight games with only one of those – a 2-1 los to Chile- going over the 2.5 goals barrier. Guess what: during the same study period England also played eight games and also had seven of them remain under 2.5 goals, a 2-1 win over Nigeria the odd one out. Go low on goals."

England v Sweden
Saturday, 15:00
Live on BBC1

This column came up trumps last time with the double on Harry Kane to score and both teams to score rewarding us at 3.45.

It's Sweden up next and these are the two ones we're going for ahead of Saturday's big game. Remember that you can of course select your own. Just click on the Same Game Multi tab, put two or more selections together and Betfair Sportsbook will calculate the odds on it for you.

Back Under 2.5 goals + 40 bookings points or more @ [3.4]

Two of England's four matches so far this World Cup have gone under 2.5 goals. So have two of Sweden's. Looking at those stats alone, you could be forgiven for thinking the 1/2 on under 2.5 goals looks a tad short here. But I'm not so sure.

Both Sweden's 2-1 loss to Germany and England's 2-1 win over Tunisia came courtesy of very late goals and without them, the numbers would look very different. But even aside from that, you just have to look at how the two teams are set up to think they'll be involved in far more low scoring affairs than high scoring ones.

And the numbers back that up, too. Between October 2017 and the start of the World Cup, Sweden played eight games with only one of those - a 2-1 loss to Chile- going over the 2.5 goals barrier. Guess what: during the same study period England also played eight games and also had seven of them remain under 2.5 goals, a 2-1 win over Nigeria the odd one out. Go low on goals.

Going with over 40 bookings points would have easily paid out in both of these teams' Last 16 matches. Switzerland had a man sent off late on against Swede whereas the England v Colombia game saw eight players booked.

Sweden are by nature a physical side because quite frankly, they're not going to outplay many teams from a technical perspective. But England showed against Colombia they're no shrinking violets, either. Both Jordan Henderson and Dele Alli were booked for slightly naughty infringements so they're clearly under orders from Gareth Southgate to look after themselves.

This should be a tough match from an aggression point of view and as the stakes get higher, so the tempers get shorter. Over 40 points is 5/4.

Either team to win on penalties + England -2 on corner handicap @ [10.5]

You'll have noticed that three games went into extra-time so far and all three ended up being decided on penalties. Hardly surprising. The trend over the last few years has been to almost not bother trying to score during extra-time. Everyone seems to think they'll have the edge if it goes to pens because they've practiced them more or watched more footage of their opponents taking and saving penalties. We may well come to the point where the football powers-that-be scrap extra time entirely.

But that's to worry about another day. Should this one go to extra time and that's a distinct possibility between two well matched sides, the smart money is on both teams just playing out those 30 minutes at snail's pace and putting their destiny in the hands of Lady Luck. Let's hope so.

The natural instinct here is to go for an England win should it go all the way but here's where we need to reel in the greed. Yes, they're fresh from beating Colombia that way but we need to go back to Euro 96 and Spain for the last time they came good from the spot. There's no evidence to suggest that they'll have the upper hand if we have pens here and we don't need to push the boat out anyway. 4/1 that either team wins this way is more than good enough.

Sweden have lost the corners battle in all of their matches so far. Starting with the most recent it goes: 11-3, 7-3, 8-3, 8-3. So that's an average of 5.5 corners less than their opponents a game.

It's been a very different story with England and corners. They've 'won' the lot with the numbers as follows, again most recent first: 6-1, 7-2, 3-2, 7-2. Again, basic maths tells us that's an average of four corners a game more than their opponents so far this World Cup.

But aside from the numbers suggesting that backing England -2 corners on the handicap at 11/10 (a reminder you'd need England to win by 3 corners or more) is a good idea, so does common sense. England's wing-backs have been good at getting forward and with the likes of Harry Maguire and John Stones to aim at, they'll be happy to win as many corners as possible if they come their way.

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