Nations League Tipsheet: Slovakia will beat Czech mates

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Dan Fitch thinks that Slovakia's impressive home record will continue when they host the Czech Republic, as he previews a busy Saturday of Nations League action...

"Slovakia are unbeaten in their last nine home games (W8 D1)."

Back Slovakia to beat Czech Republic at [2.2]

UEFA Nations League, Saturday 13 October

Slovakia will keep home record going

Slovakia [2.2] v Czech Republic [3.7]; The Draw [3.2]
Kick off 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Slovakia and the Czech Republic were both defeated in their opening games to Ukraine, so neither can afford to lose a match that already has a lot of local pride riding on it.

The Czech's lost their home match against Ukraine and were then thrashed 5-1 by Russia, which saw them sack their manager Karel Jarolim and bring in Jaroslav Silhavy. They face a Slovakia team that are unbeaten in their last nine home games (W8 D1). With that record you have to back the home win at [2.2].

Low scoring match from minnows

Armenia [1.09] v Gibraltar [32.0]; The Draw [13.5]
Kick off 17:00
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Gibraltar have never won an international fixture away from home, so it's little surprise to see that Armenia are such overwhelming favourites.

Yet Armenia are hardly reliable at home, winning only one of their last five games (D1 L3). Four of these matches have seen under 2.5 goals, which can be backed at [3.2].

Georgia's defence to remain stubborn

Georgia [1.15] v Andorra [30.0]; The Draw [7.4]
Kick off 17:00
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Georgia are top of League D, Group 1 after winning both of their Nations League games. They now host an unbeaten Andorra side, that drew their matches with Latvia and Kazakhstan.

The over/under 2.5 goals market could again be key to finding some value. Georgia's last five games have all seen less than three goals and they kept four clean sheets in those matches, so back under 2.5 goals at [1.91].

Kazakhstan worth a punt

Latvia [2.8] v Kazakhstan [3.0]; The Draw [3.0]
Kick off 17:00
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

With just a point apiece, Latvia and Kazakhstan are both in need of a win to give them any hope of winning promotion to League C.

Of the two, it's the away side that are in the better form. Latvia have only won one of their last ten games (D3 L6), while Kazakhstan have only lost two of their last six (W2 D2). Kazakhstan are [1.95] in the Draw No Bet market.

Lagerback renaissance to continue

Norway [1.71] v Slovenia [5.0]; The Draw [3.8]
Kick off 17:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Norway have been much improved of late under Lars Lagerback, with their Nations League loss to Bulgaria their first defeat after five straight wins.

They are unbeaten in eight home games (W6 D2) and are justified favourites against a Slovenia side that have lost both of their games in League C, Group 3. Back Norway to win to nil at [2.62].

Bulgaria to win entertaining game

Bulgaria [1.57] v Cyprus [8.0]; The Draw [4.0]
Kick off 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Wins over Slovenia and Norway have put Bulgaria top of League C, Group 3 and another victory would see them take a huge step towards promotion.

Cyprus won their most recent Nations League game against Slovenia, but that was their first victory after a run of eight matches without a win. With Bulgaria conceding in three of their last four games, go for a home win and both teams to score at [4.0].

Goals in both halves from home side

Macedonia [1.12] v Liechtenstein [40.0]; The Draw [10.0]
Kick off 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Red Button

Macedonia have won both of their Nations League fixtures, stretching their unbeaten run to nine matches (W5 D4). They are hot favourites over a Liechtenstein team who they beat twice in the qualifiers for the recent World Cup.

In those two games Macedonia scored a total of seven goals and did not concede. On each occasion Macedonia won both halves and you can back them to do so again at [1.85].

Dan Fitch 2018/19 Season P/L

Staked: 53.00 pts
Returned: 50.57 pts
P/L: -2.43 pts

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