The Week Ahead: Five 'must have' bets in the coming week

Editor
30 March 2015

Mike expects Matt Kuchar to challenge for a top five place at the Shell Houston Open

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Only a late collapse from Zach Johnson prevented Mike Norman and Dan Thomas from a 328/1 clean sweep in last week's 'Five Bets' column so can they go one better this week and land 5/5? Here are their selections from across the sporting spectrum...

5. Horse Racing, AW Sprint Final (Conditions Stakes) Good Friday - Back Pretend @ 2.68/5 to Win

"The step back up to six furlongs is sure to suit judging by the way he won at Lingfield last time, and with just the tiniest bit of luck in running - which you always need at this track - then the antepost jolly should have few problems landing the spoils."

1. China Open Snooker, All week - Back Mark Selby to win outright @ around 6.05/1

The price has come in a fair amount since our snooker tipster extraordinaire Paul Krishnamurty tipped him up in his outright preview, but we're happy to clamber aboard the Mark Selby train in China this week, even at 5/1.

As Paul notes, the defending world champion has been runner-up on two of his last three China Open appearances and recently picked up the German Masters title so, in a market without Ronnie O'Sullivan who has pulled out, he is rightly favourite.

Selby's draw looks favourable, with only Joe Perry in a possible last 16 clash looking likely to challenge, and we expect him to be travelling to the Crucible for the World Championship with another title under his belt. DT

2. Italy v England, Tuesday - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.84/5

I'd usually steer well clear of betting on international friendlies due to the uncertainty over selection, formation and, importantly, motivation, but all signs point to a low scoring game on Tuesday night even if new hero Harry Kane does look likely to make his first start in an England shirt.

Five of Italy's last six on home soil have gone under 2.5, including draws against Luxembourg and Croatia and a narrow 1-0 win over Albania, while four of England's last away trips have seen fewer than three goals.

Both Antonio Conte and Roy Hodgson are likely to field relatively experimental line-ups and will probably be pretty satisfied to avoid defeat, so don't expect great tempo in the game. DT

3. PGA Tour Golf, Shell Houston Open, Thursday - Back Matt Kuchar Top-5 Finish @ 6.05/1

Matt Kuchar really should have won this event last year and we're backing him to contend again in what is the final warm-up event before next week's US Masters.

Kuchar entered the final round 12 months ago with a four-shot lead, and although his advantage was cut to just one stroke he needed only a par on his final hole to secure victory. But from the middle of the fairway his approach found water, and thanks to Matt Jones chipping-in during the play-off he had to settle for second.

But that second place finish just confirmed Kuchar's love of this week's venue, the Golf Club of Houston. His last three appearances there have all been top-10 finishes, and going into this week's renewal on the back of a top-15 finish in Texas we feel K-oooo-ch is primed for an excellent fortnight. MN

4. Premier League Darts, Thursday - Back Adrian Lewis @ 5/4 to beat Peter Wright (Sportsbook)

Last week we couldn't understand why Adrian Lewis was a 2.26/5 shot to beat a massively improved and in-form Dave Chisnall and thankfully we were proved correct. But this week we're siding with Jackpot, who incidentally is the same price as seven days ago against a man in danger of elimination. Not only that, but Peter Wright put in arguably his worst performance of the season when averaging in the mid-80s and losing 7-3 to James Wade on Thursday night.

And of course, this Thursday night is Judgement Night, a crucial point in this year's Premier League when two players will be eliminated from the competition. Lewis is one of five players who can still be eliminated, but he knows that a win will see him through. Very few players handle pressure better than the two-time world champ, and despite not winning, his three-darts averages in the last fortnight have been much higher than Wrights. Back Lewis to hit the Jackpot. MN

5. Horse Racing, AW Sprint Final (Conditions Stakes) Good Friday - Back Pretend @ 2.68/5 to Win

The Charlie Appleby-trained Pretend won just once from his first four career starts, all of which were over seven furlongs and beyond, but this four-year-old son of Invincible Spirit has been a revelation since switched to sprinting on all-weather surfaces.

Following three impressive victories over six furlongs at Wolverhampton Pretend was dropped to the minimum distance for his Polytrack debut at Lingfield. Slowly away, Adam Kirby looked to have a mountain to climb aboard the Godolphin runner as they turned for home, but switched to the wide outside the 11/10 favourite came with a storming run to win going away in impressive fashion.

Friday's All-Weather Sprint Condition Stakes is stacked with quality, but very few have the progressive profile of Pretend. The step back up to six furlongs is sure to suit judging by the way he won at Lingfield last time, and with just the tiniest bit of luck in running - which you always need at this track - then the antepost jolly should have few problems landing the spoils. MN