Sevilla are trying to secure a Champions League place and Dan Fitch is backing them to take a step closer with a win over Valladolid.
"Valladolid’s poor scoring record could be key to finding some value. They have only scored once in the last three games and that was a penalty."
Sevilla 1.434/9 v Valladolid 9.617/2; The Draw 4.77/2
Friday 26 June, 21:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video
Three consecutive draws for Champions League chasers
Sevilla need to get back to winning ways when they host Valladolid on Friday night, as the race for Champions League qualification hots up.
Julen Lopetegui's team won their opening match following the season restart, but have since drawn their last three. Defending well to hold Barcelona to a 0-0 draw and drawing 2-2 away at in-form Villlarreal are hardly results to be ashamed of, but Sevilla need to start winning matches again if they are to hold onto their Champions League spot.
Third when the season resumed, Sevilla have now dropped down to fourth, two points behind the newly consistent Atletico Madrid. As the team now most in danger of being caught, it's time for Sevilla to show their class.
Lopetegui has no injuries or suspensions to worry about before this match and will welcome back star performer Lucas Ocampos to the starting lineup, having rested the Argentine against Villarreal.
Valladolid distancing themselves from drop zone
Valladolid should provide tough opposition for Sevilla, having been in good form since the season resumed.
They have only lost one of their four games so far (W1 D2) and that was away at Atletico Madrid, who did not score until the 81st minute in a 1-0 win. In their most recent outing on Tuesday, they drew 1-1 at home with Getafe, who are fifth in La Liga.
That result left Valladolid 15th in the league. They are eight points clear of the relegation zone at the time of writing, but with two of the bottom three having games in hand, they cannot be complacent.
Sergio has two players that may be unavailable, but otherwise has a full squad to choose from. Pedro Pollo has been out with illness, while Sandro Ramirez has a leg injury.
Sevilla to edge it against capable opposition
Sevilla are the 1.434/9 favourites, with the draw at 4.77/2 and Valladolid at 4.77/2.
The extra quality of Sevilla should tell, but their price looks slim. Sevilla are coming into this game after a run of draws and Valladolid have just played the clubs that are currently third (Atletico) and fifth in La Liga (Getafe), without being disgraced.
Valladolid's poor scoring record could be key to finding some value. They have only scored once in the last three games and that was a penalty. Sevilla are 2.111/10 to win to nil, while another option is a home win and under 2.5 goals at 3.211/5. Three of Sevilla's last four matches have produced less than three goals.
Ocampos is the value scoring option
Three Sevilla players are tied as favourites in the anytime goalscorer market, with none representing much value. Luuk de Jong, Munir El Haddadi and Youssef En-Nesyri are all 2.35/4, but none have been regular scorers this season. De Jong has six league goals, while Munir and En Nesyri both have three.
Sevilla's top scorer is Ocampos with eleven goals. His goal against Real Betis, in the first La Liga match post-lockdown, was his fifth consecutive strike. Having started on the bench in Sevilla's last game, Ocampos should be rejuvenated and is 2.8815/8 to find the net.
Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L
Staked: 662.00 pts
Returned: 644.54 pts
P/L: -17.46 pts
Back Sevilla to beat Valladolid and under 2.5 goals at 3.211/5
Back Ocampos to score for Sevilla against Valladolid at 2.8815/8