La Liga: Have Atlético Madrid already blown their season?

Andy Brassell
20 November 2017

Diego Costa's return to action for Atlético can't come soon enough

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A draw with Real Madrid is nothing to be ashamed of, but could Atlético's inability to win the derby be symptomatic of a giant losing its way, asks Andy Brassell?

"The bottom line is that a side that was already inherently conservative has doubled down on that mindset; perhaps with the sense that the first season at their new stadium might be a transitional one, with the current set of players wondering if they’re just holding the fort until Diego Costa and Vitolo join in January."

"If we keep playing like this," warned Atlético Madrid's captain Gabi after the recent home draw with Qarabag, "then Diego Costa coming in January won't matter." They were hard words, but words that needed saying. Marca described Atleti's difficulties as "the most profound crisis Diego Simeone has faced (since becoming coach)" in its analysis of the squad's current slumber on the day after the game.

Solid but unspectacular

Almost three weeks later, how much has changed? Not enough, many would argue. Saturday night's goalless draw with Real Madrid was, in isolation, not a terrible result. It might have been a pretty joyless slog (it was a derby, after all) but Atleti looked solid enough, and they might even have won it near the end had Raphaël Varane not cleared his compatriot Kevin Gameiro's effort off the line.

It was, however, Atleti's season in microcosm. There have been plenty of moments that were ok taken on their own, like the draw with Barcelona at the Wanda Metropolitano (in which Luís Suarez's late equaliser was needed to preserve Barça's unbeaten record), and Simeone's side are still unbeaten in La Liga after a dozen games.

Simeone in need of a new plan?

There is, though, just too strong a sense of déjà vu to this term's efforts. Even if Simeone believes enough in the future to have signed a new deal, and they can look forward to the reinforcements of Costa and the excellent Vitolo in January, it's hard to shake the feeling that the blueprint is becoming a bit stale.

Having attempted to commute Atleti to a more attacking style at the beginning of 2015-16 - and swiftly rowed back when it didn't immediately click - the coach shows little desire to experiment again. The derby was there to be won for both sides, with each going into the game already 11 points behind leaders Barça. Yet the ambition wasn't really there.

Over the season, that already shows. Atleti have scored just 16 in their 12 La Liga games, which is exactly half the amount struck by Marcelino's enterprising Valencia. The Mestalla club have less talent on their books, but are flying. It seems that the setbacks suffered so far, whether the last-gasp Champions League defeat to Chelsea or the newly-developed habit of conceding goals from set-pieces and crosses, have been hard to surmount.

Holding on for Diego Costa

The bottom line is that a side that was already inherently conservative has doubled down on that mindset; perhaps with the sense that the first season at their new stadium, when the Calderón was such a part of the team's identity, might be a transitional one, and perhaps having Costa and Vitolo in the back of their minds, with the current set of players wondering if they're just holding the fort until January.

Certainly it's hard to argue Atleti are underestimated with a price of 36.035/1 to take La Liga when they seem less and less likely to nick close games. The real question is where their campaign goes from here, with Roma in a great position to knock the 2014 and 2016 finalists out of Champions League contention at their new pad this week.

Something special required against Roma

Backing an Atleti win, even with the imperative to do so, feels optimistic at 2.01/1, with Roma seeming to have successfully traversed their own period of uncertainty. If one really believes that Simeone can inspire something special, Atleti are 6.05/1 to get out of the group, which appeared to be a given back at the start of it all in September.

Gabi's dismissiveness of the value of the Europa League in that same post-match interview - while acknowledging "it's given me a lot in my career" - shows that real determination to carve a future in this season's competition exists. The only question is whether there is belief to match it. If Roma deliver the knockout blow this week, where do Atleti go next?