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La Liga Betting: Messi to make the difference

Barcelona forward Lionel Messi.
Can Lionel Messi point Barcelona to victory over Sevilla?
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Lionel Messi is back for Barcelona and Dan Fitch expects them to claim another home victory against a Sevilla side that are likely to score.

"Sevilla have found the net in eight of their nine games this season."

Back Barcelona to beat Sevilla and both teams to score at [2.88]

Top of the table showdown

Real Madrid [1.34] v Granada [10.5]; The Draw [6.0]
Saturday 5 October, 15:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

The top two in La Liga meet on Saturday afternoon. No one will be too surprised that Real Madrid are one of these teams, but Granada's current status comes as something of a shock.

Granada were promoted from the Segunda Division last season, finishing second behind Osasuna by eight points. There was little to point to the fact that they would flourish in the top flight.

That's just what Granada have done. Unbeaten in five (W4 D1), Granada claimed a major scalp last month when they beat Barcelona. During that run they have only conceded one goal.

That defensive record could be key to finding some value in Granada's match with unbeaten Real Madrid (W4 D3). Zinedine Zidane's team have not scored more than two goals in any of their last five games. Under 2.5 goals is [2.84], while for a really safe bet, under 3.5 goals can be backed at [1.72].

Sociedad under Odegaard's spell

Real Sociedad [1.94] v Getafe [4.8]; The Draw [3.4]
Sunday 6 October, 17:30
Live on Premier Sports 1

It's been a good start to the season for Real Sociedad. Despite the fact that five of their seven La Liga games have been played away from home, they are currently fifth and only two points short of the leaders Real Madrid.

Sociedad have won both of their home games without conceding a goal, most noticeably beating Atletico Madrid 2-0. The form of the on-loan playmaker Martin Odegaard has really caught the attention. Signed by Real Madrid when aged just 16, the Norwegian has struggled to make an impact at the club, but his stock his gradually risen during loan spells in Holland.

Odegaard was keen to leave on a permanent deal over the summer, but it looks as if Real Madrid were wise to keep him and give his some La Liga experience. For this season Real Sociedad will be the beneficiaries. Beyond that, the prospect of Odegaard breaking through at Madrid seems a realistic one.

Getafe are 16th, but that position is not indicative of their general form. Only Atletico Madrid and Barcelona have won against a side that is tough to beat but is struggling to win games (P7 W1 D4 L2). Yet with Getafe having made a gruelling trip to Krasnodar in the Europa League on Thursday, they may struggle against a Sociedad side that look good value to win at [1.94].

Messi returns and makes big impact

Barcelona [1.53] v Sevilla [6.6]; The Draw [4.7]
Sunday 6 October, 20:00
Live on Premier Sports 1

Barcelona faced a major test in the Champions League this week and they passed it.

Inter proved to be difficult opponents for the home side, with the Italians taking an early lead. Two Luis Suarez goals won the match for Barca, with the second being made by Lionel Messi after a wonderful dribble through the Inter defence. If proof was needed of what Messi brings to this team, this was a fine reminder of the difference he can make in tight matches, in what was only his second start of the season.

Sevilla were also in European action in midweek, beating APOEL 1-0 in the Europa League. This was their second successive win after beating Real Sociedad 3-2 last weekend, as Julen Lopetegui's team begins to recover from their recent surprise defeat at Eibar.

That recovery may have to go on hold, as Barcelona have won all four of their home games this season. Barca have conceded in all of those victories and with Sevilla having found the net in eight of their nine games this season, a home win and both teams to score looks the value bet at [2.88].

Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L

Staked: 176.00 pts
Returned: 179.92 pts
P/L: +3.92 pts

Dan Fitch,

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