Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back against Dortmund in 30/1 fourfold

Dortmund manager Lucien Favre
Lucien Favre's side could drop more points
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Infogol's analyst is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

"Wolfsburg have been extremely impressive this season, and as mentioned already, they are unbeaten, and unsurprisingly have the best defensive process in the league (0.86 xGA per game)."

Wolfsburg to remain unbeaten

Dortmund vs Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30 GMT

Dortmund come into this game having won just one of their last five Bundesliga games following a disappointing performance in a goalless draw with Schalke last weekend, a game in which they created barely any chances of note (xG: SCH 1.05 - 0.38 DOR).

Lucien Favre's side have been poor of late, not only with results but with performances, and even a 1-0 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach was a poor performance and fortunate win (xG: DOR 1.42 - 2.75 BMG).

They are a gettable side defensively, and aren't showing the clinical attacking quality we expect of them, and they face the only unbeaten team in the Bundesliga in this game.

Wolfsburg have been extremely impressive this season, and as mentioned already, they are unbeaten, and unsurprisingly have the best defensive process in the league (0.86 xGA per game).

They pose a serious threat to Dortmund, not only with their solid backline, but with their attacking threat too, mainly Wout Weghorst.

Infogol calculates that Dortmund have only a 49% (2.04) chance of winning here, so the fact that they are so short for this game is a surprise (1.59 - 63%), meaning the play here is to lay the home side.

Goals galore in Valencia

Levante vs Barcelona
Saturday, 15:00 GMT

Levante caused a major upset in midweek by travelling to the Basque country and beating high-flying Real Sociedad 2-1, and edged the xG battle in the game, creating good chances (xG: RSO 1.81 - 2.06 LEV).

They continue to be an extremely entertaining team to follow, with plenty of chances at both ends the norm, and this their process fully reflects that (1.61 xGF, 2.17 xGA per game).

Barcelona made light work of Real Valladolid in midweek, winning 5-1 at the Nou Camp after another Lionel Messi masterclass, as they racked up over 3 xG.

After a spluttering start to the season, Barca look to be finding their feet in attack, but still look vulenerable defensively, allowing 1.25 xGA per game this season.

Levante have the tools to hurt Barca, but will likely be on the wrong end of a high-scoring game, but the value in this game is to back Over 3.5 goals at a juicy 2.04, especially as Infogol makes it an odds-on shot (55% - 1.82).

More misery for Marseille

Marseille vs Lille
Saturday, 16:30 GMT

Marseille have won just one of their last six Ligue 1 games following their crushing 4-0 defeat at PSG last weekend, a game in which they were extremely poor in both attack and defence (xG: PSG 3.12 - 0.61 MAR).

So far this season, Andre Villas-Boas' side have been extremely underwhelming, and although they sit 7th in the table, they have ranked as only the 10th best team, with a really poor attacking process (1.10 xGF per game).

Lille got back to winning ways in emphatic style last weekend, beating Bordeaux 3-0 in front of their own fans, and that was fully expected, as their underlying numbers this season have been as good as last.

They have ranked as the second best team in Ligue 1 this season, and pose a serious threat to Marseille if they continue performing the way they are (1.56 xGF, 1.04 xGA per game).

Infogol makes the visitors favourites to win this game (41% - 2.44), flipping the market, making the away side the obvious play in this match at such a huge price (3.60 - 28%).

No clean sheet again for Juve

Torino vs Juventus
Saturday, 19:45 GMT

The Turin derby takes place on Saturday night, with league leaders Juventus travelling to face their rivals Torino, who are winless in five Serie A games.

Walter Mazzari's side are on a retched run of form coming into this game, but not only are their results poor, but their performances have been poor also according to xG.

They rank as the 15th best team in the league on xG, mainly due to a poor defensive process, as they have allowed 1.72 xGA per game this season, but continue to pose an attacking threat with the likes of Andrea Belotti and Simone Zaza leading the line.

It hasn't all been plain sailing for Maurizio Sarri as Juventus manager, and the Old Lady have had a tough and unconvincing couple of weeks, winning four of their last five games in all competitions by a 2-1 scoreline, and drawing the other 1-1.

Clearly this isn't the stubborn and solid Juve defence we have seen in recent years, but their attacking process isn't yet at the standard Maurizio Sarri expects, but they keep getting themselves over the line in matches.

They will create chances here (1.92 xGF per game), but they will allow plenty also, and so Infogol suggests the play here is to back both teams to score, calculating a 51% (1.96) chance of this happening, so backing the BTTS at 2.06 (49%) is the selection.

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Infogol's 19/20 Euro P+L

19/20
Staked: 35pts
Returned: 24.32pts
P+L: -10.68pts

18/19
Staked: 102pts
Returned: 100.9pts
P+L: -1.1pts

Jake Osgathorpe,

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