Neither Getafe or Real Sociedad are playing as well as they can, but Dan Fitch argues that the stakes in this game will inspire better performances...
"Real Sociedad’s goalscoring record has been poor of late, but the positive aspect of that trend is that it’s pushed up prices."
Getafe [2.64] v Real Sociedad [3.1]; The Draw [3.1]
Monday 29 June, 21:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video
Despite poor form, Getafe can still make top four
Getafe have not won since the La Liga season restarted, but could put themselves right back into contention for a top four spot, with a win in this match.
After a defeat to Granada in their first game back, Getafe have drawn all three of their matches. Despite this run, they remain in fifth place and are only five points behind fourth placed Sevilla.
Sevilla are on a similar run. Their 1-1 stalemate against Real Valladolid on Friday was their fourth consecutive draw. With Sevilla having played a game more, a win for Getafe will put them within two points of their rivals.
Erick Cabaco and Oghenekaro Etebo will both be missing through injury. They will join the suspended Djene on the sidelines.
Sociedad yet to rediscover past form
If Getafe's results since the season resumed have been disappointing, Real Sociedad's have been much worse.
Sociedad were fourth at the time of the restart. They are now seventh and trail Sevilla by seven points.
Without a win (P4 D1 L3), Sociedad have lost each of their last three games. On Wednesday they were defeated 1-0 at home by Celta Vigo, which means that they have now only scored two goals from four games, having been playing some thrilling attacking football before the season was paused.
Four Sociedad players are unavailable for the trip to Getafe. Asier Illarramendi, Ander Guevara, Luca Sangalli and Ander Barrenetxea are all injured.
Hosts will avoid defeat
Getafe are the [2.64] favourites, with a Real Sociedad win and the draw both priced at [3.1].
It's hard to have much confidence in either side at the moment, but Getafe should at least avoid defeat. Backing them in the Double Chance market is not worthwhile at odds of just [1.43], but the [1.81] in the Draw No Bet market looks like a relatively safe investment.
Goals could start to flow from shot-shy sides
Real Sociedad's goalscoring record has been poor of late, but the positive aspect of that trend is that it's pushed up prices.
We know that Sociedad are a very capable attacking side at their best and the stakes in this match are high. Win and either side can start thinking about the possibility of finishing in the top four again, while the losers are left with the reality of Europa League football at best.
So we can expect that these two underachieving teams will be really striving to win this one. That could mean that both teams to score is a little overpriced at [2.18], while the same could be said for over 2.5 goals at [2.7]. These are not bets that have been landing regularly for either side, but this is a crucial fixture where neither side have any choice but to be bold.
Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L
Staked: 670.00 pts
Returned: 648.66 pts
P/L: -21.34 pts
Back Getafe draw no bet at [1.81]
Back both Getafe and Real Sociedad to score at [2.18]