La Liga Betting: Betis can take advantage of Atletico's priorities

Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone.
Will Diego Simeone shuffle his pack when Atletico Madrid host Real Betis?
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Our regular La Liga man Jack Lang is away but we have an able sub in the form of Dan Fitch, who previews the weekend Spanish games, all of which are available on Betfair Live Video...

"Odds for the home win look a little skinny, especially when you consider that Betis come into this match after six straight wins, keeping clean sheets in each of the last five."

Back Atletico Madrid and Real Betis to draw at [3.9]

Another tough match for Valencia

Celta Vigo [2.8] v Valencia [2.72]; The Draw [3.55]
Saturday, 15:15
Live on Betfair Live Video

With only two La Liga matches taking place on Saturday, this looks to be the pick of the pair, as fourth placed Valencia travel to a Celta Vigo side who have just pulled off a minor shock.

Celta are inconsistent but are capable of stepping up a level when at home against quality opponents, as they proved on Tuesday when they twice fought back to draw 2-2 with unbeaten Barcelona. Juan Carlos Unzue's team also drew with Real Madrid by the same scoreline back in January, which was a result that kickstarted their current eight match unbeaten run at home in the league.

Valencia are looking to bounce back from consecutive defeats, after losing at first to Barcelona last weekend and then to Getafe on Wednesday night. Dani Parejo was sent off towards the end of the 2-1 home defeat to Getafe, robbing Valencia of their chief creative outlet Dani Parejo.

Los Che have done brilliantly to break into the into the top four this season, but a lack of strength in depth has meant that they've often dropped points when tasked with a busy fixture list. With that in mind, there's reason to believe that Celta can cause problems for the visitors. Both teams to score looks likely to land at [1.71].

Will Simeone rest key players?

Atletico Madrid [1.6] v Real Betis [6.4]; The Draw [3.9]
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Betfair Live Video and Sky Sports Football

Atletico slumped to a heavy 3-0 defeat away at Real Sociedad in midweek and now face a Real Betis side that have hit form.

After a gruelling season in which failure in a very tough Champions League group saw Atletico embark on a lengthy Europa League campaign, Diego Simeone's team are understandably in erratic form as they reach the home stretch. The last seven games have only seen them win on three occasions (D1 L3) and with Real Madrid breathing down their necks, Atletico need to pick up the pace.

Yet with the Europa League semi-final against Arsenal to come this week, Simeone may well elect to rest key players. Odds for the home win therefore look a little skinny, especially when you consider that Betis come into this match after six straight wins, keeping clean sheets in each of the last five.

With Betis defending so well, it could be tough for an understrength Atletico to break them down. Under 2.5 goals at [1.73] and the draw at [3.9] are both options worth exploring.

Paco has saved Levante

Athletic Bilbao [1.7] v Levante [5.0]; The Draw [3.65]
Monday, 20:00
Live on Betfair Live Video and Sky Sports Football

Relegation threatened Levante look like they have produced the goods when it matters and can take a further step towards safety when they travel to Athletic Bilbao.

A run of 15 games without a win saw Levante part ways with their coach Juan Ramon Muniz and promote their reserve team manager Paco Fernandez, who has had an immediate impact on results. Since Fernandez took charge, Levante have only lost one of six games (W4 D1) and the club are now seven points clear of the relegation zone.

Levante won on Thursday night in stunning fashion when Emmanuel Boateng scored with the last kick of the game to relegate Malaga, which followed another recent victory secured in injury time against Las Palmas. A switch to 4-4-2 has clearly boosted Levante's attacking threat, but the amount of late goals they are scoring under Fernandez also highlights their renewed belief and desire.

Their 13th placed opponents Bilbao have only won two of their last eight games (D3 L3) and have nothing to play for, other than an increasingly unlikely top half finish. With Levante having the greater motivation and better form, back them at [2.1] in the Double Chance market to avoid defeat.

Dan Fitch 2017/18 Season P/L

Staked: 448.0 pts
Returned: 464.37 pts
P/L: +16.37 pts

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