Wolves v Southampton: Fortress Molineux to witness another home win

Jamie Pacheco
28 September 2018

Nuno Espirito Santo has benefited from a policy of recruiting lots of his countrymen.

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

A Wolves side packed with Portuguese talent have impressed and can carry on winning against a Southampton side who will already have a relegation battle on their minds, says Jamie Pacheco...

"If Wolves are to win this, it’s hardly going to be a rout. That’s not their style and the stats back up the fact that they haven’t scored more than two goals in a match yet this season. And they could well keep a clean sheet here against a rather blunt attack who don’t have much in the way of goal threats beyond Danny Ings, a man who’s hardly played for the past three seasons."

Wolves v Southampton
Saturday September 29, 15:00

Portuguese contingent leading the way

Wolverhampton may not be the most obvious place for 11 Portuguese players to end up, including World Cup stars Rui Patricio and Joao Moutinho.

But that's easily explained by the fact that manager Nuno Espirito Santo clearly believes in going with what he knows (and the Jorge Mendes influence of course). He will have seen plenty of most of those names in action while working in Portugal and relies on a network of scouts he knows well to advise him on the rest. In addition to the two high-profile internationals already mentioned, Ruben Neves has also been excellent.

But it's not just the Portuguese crew who have impressed. Ex-Benfica man Raul Jimenez has looked lively upfront and French left-back/wing-back Willy Boly has been safe when it comes to defending and adventurous when it comes to attacking' he's already scored this season.

The result of that all is a very creditable 10th place in the Premier League table.

Long old season ahead for the Saints

Southampton were my pre-season tip to go down and nothing I've seen from them makes me want to change. The only difference is that they were 8.07/1 then and are just 5.69/2 now. But even at that price they're probably worth a punt.

It's bad enough that their squad lacks quality but they can't be bottling matches like they did against Brighton a couple of weeks ago. At 2-0 up with just 25 minutes to go, they ended up drawing 2-2. It may well come back to bite them on the backside.

Home win likely at fortress Molineux

Given that the last time they played in the league was back in 2009, I won't even go into the head-to-heads. It's too far back to be of any relevance here.

Of far greater relevance is that Wolves are one of five sides unbeaten at home this season, as Opta tell us. That one of those games was against Man City tells you all you need to know about how they perform with home comforts. They're no mugs on the road either, by the way. They also drew 1-1 with the 'other Manchester' at the weekend.

Bar a surprise 2-0 win at Palace who were missing their main man Wilfried Zaha that day, Southampton lost their other matches on the road: at Everton and Liverpool.

Still, 5/6 is a tad short on the outright win so we should look for a slightly better value price.

Go with the low-scoring home win

If Wolves are to win this, it's hardly going to be a rout. That's not their style and the stats back up the fact that they haven't scored more than two goals in a match yet this season. And they could well keep a clean sheet here against a rather blunt attack who don't have much in the way of goal threats beyond Danny Ings, a man who's hardly played for the past three seasons.

All of that points towards a 1-0 or 2-0 win. You can cover both of them by going with Wolves to win + under 2.5 goals in the match at 13/5.

Raiding full-back looks over-priced

Wolves certainly like to share the goals around. Five different players have scored and only one- Jimenez- has scored two. He's available at 4/1 to score first and at 1710 to score anytime.

But in the absence of a prolific scorer, it's hard to make much of case for any of them at the current prices. Or is it? I'll go back to that man Boly, who just loves getting forward, makes plenty of appearances in the opposition box and isn't afraid to unleash one from just about anywhere.

He's certainly worth a minimum stake bet of 0.5 points at 14/1.

Same-Game Multi Bet

Why not create your own same-game multi-bet? Just click on the tab with that name on the Sportsbook, choose two or more selections and it will work out for you what odds it comes to.

A home win with their top scorer Jimenez scoring anytime comes to odds of 3.6, for example.

Jamie Pacheco's 2018/19 P&L

Points Staked: 10
Points Returned: 14.9
P/L: +4.9 points

Bet £10 On ACCAS or Bet Builders and Get a £2 Free Bet

Bet £10 on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders, at minimum combined odds of 2.0 (evens) and once the qualifying bet(s) have settled, you'll get a £2 free bet. Free bet valid 48 hours on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders. T&Cs apply.