Wolves v Aston Villa: Villans can grab points at Molineux

Andrew Atherley
01 April 2022
3 min read

Steven Gerrard's Villa side can get back to winning ways

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Aston Villa
Sat 2 Apr, 15:00

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Andrew Atherley says Steven Gerrard's side can benefit from a couple of key absentees in the home team...

"Villa have shown signs of developing into a dangerous away side, winning five out of nine on the road under Gerrard, and this looks a decent opportunity even against a side above them in the table."

Back Villa to win at 2.6813/8

Jimenez a big miss for Wolves

Wolves have dropped a little off the pace in the race for European places after their dramatic 3-2 home defeat by Leeds in their last match before the international break.

That game turned on Raul Jimenez's sending-off after 53 minutes, which opened the door for Leeds to come back from a 2-0 deficit at half-time and score a stoppage-time winner against a panicked Wolves defence.

Bruno Lage's side head into their last eight games of the season in eighth place, with Arsenal eight points ahead in fourth and a gap of five points to Tottenham in fifth.

Even so, as part of the top eight, Wolves are well clear of the rest. Lage's side have 46 points, while ninth-placed Villa are on 36.

Jimenez starts a two-game ban for his second sending-off of the season, with Hwang Hee-Chan set to deputise. The South Korea striker started well, scoring in three of his first six league appearances, but has found the net only once in 16 games since then.

Wolves are also missing influential midfielder Ruben Neves, who suffered a knee injury in the Leeds match and may not return this season.

Francisco Trincao, who came on for Neves against Leeds and impressed with a goal and an assist, is set to start. Nelson Semedo and Pedro Neto could be ready to rejoin the matchday squad after injury.

England goals boost for Villa stars

Villa went into the international break on a downer, having lost 2-1 at West Ham and 1-0 at home to Arsenal.

Those setbacks followed a run of three consecutive wins for Steven Gerrard's side against Brighton, Southampton and Leeds, all to nil.

Philippe Coutinho has played a starring role since his January arrival on loan from Barcelona, with four goals and three assists in 10 games.

Ollie Watkins will have returned from international duty full of confidence, having scored the opening goal on his first start for England in Tuesday's 3-0 win over Ivory Coast.

Tyrone Mings, who played the full match on Tuesday having sat out the 2-1 win over Switzerland, was also on the scoresheet with the third goal.

Lucas Digne, who went off injured early in the West Ham match and missed the Arsenal defeat, returned to action for France on Tuesday and should take his regular place at left-back.

Digne for Ashley Young may well be the only change to the starting line-up, with Danny Ings and Leon Bailey likely to remain on the bench.

Ups and downs for both sides

Both teams have showed up-and-down form this season, highlighted by their low number of draws (four for Wolves and three for Villa).

Wolves have had five runs of multiple wins but four with multiple defeats, while Villa under Gerrard have shown a similar pattern. Having opened with four wins in their first six games under the new manager, they lost four of the next seven before their latest run of three wins on the bounce followed by back-to-back defeats.

Villa's variation appears to be influenced largely by the standard of opposition. Their record under Gerrard against teams outside the top eight is W8 D1 L3 but they have taken only one point from six meetings with top-eight sides (in a 2-2 home draw with Manchester United).

As the lowest of the top eight, Wolves are clearly not as threatening as the elite teams and their goals for (31) is significantly inferior to Villa's 41.

At home Lage's side have scored just 16 goals in 15 games, losing more (seven) than they have won (six), and they have beaten just one high-level team at Molineux (1-0 against West Ham in November).

It is notable that the now-absent Jimenez has made a significant contribution to Wolves' best home performances, scoring the opening goal or the winner in four of their six wins.

This is a tricky call given the inconsistencies but Villa have shown signs of developing into a dangerous away side, winning five out of nine on the road under Gerrard, and this looks a decent opportunity even against a side above them in the table.

Jimenez's absence is a significant blow for low-scoring Wolves and Villa could well outscore the hosts, having won eight out of 14 when scoring under Gerrard.

Villa off 0 on the Asian handicap is the safe option at 1.855/6 but in light of the low draw rates it looks worth going for a winner and Villa are the pick at 2.6813/8.

Wolves a drag on goals

Low-scoring Wolves rank second for matches with under 2.5 goals, having had 70% below that mark, although they do slightly better at home. The unders rate is 60% at Molineux.

Villa trend slightly to over 2.5 goals under Gerrard (10 out of 18) and on the road there has been a 50-50 split.

Under 2.5 goals is strong favourite at 1.664/6, mainly because of Wolves' record.

Opta Stat

Wolves could become already the fifth club to win both of their Premier League meetings with Aston Villa this season, after Arsenal, Chelsea, Watford and West Ham. Coming into this weekend's games, only Norwich (5) and Watford (5) have had more teams do the double over them than Aston Villa (4) this term. Wolves are 3.185/40 to win.

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