West Ham v Leicester City: Foxes look great value to get back to winning ways

Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers
Brendan Rodgers admitted his team were given a harsh lesson in the Liverpool defeat

Leicester might have suffered back-to-back league defeats, but Alan Dudman is siding with the Foxes to beat West Ham on Saturday evening...

"If you are taking the 2.01/1 on the away win, Leicester have a good history in recent times at the Hammers; with four successive Premier League wins in their last four."

Back Leicester City to win @ 2.01/1

West Ham United v Leicester City
Saturday 17:30

Hammers close to the danger zone

West Ham's very own version of bleak expectations is currently playing out in east London, and whilst manager Manuel Pellegrini has never been one for an optimistic and bouncy nature, he must be fearful for his job entering the current run of fixtures starting with Leicester on Saturday. This match precedes Bournemouth and Everton both at home. Bleak times indeed.

It's hard to feel optimistic despite the batch of fixtures at the London Stadium, as West Ham have been better on their travels with more points.

The Boxing Day defeat at Crystal Palace highlighted their frailties again in terms of losing a lead. The Hammers have now dropped a league-high 15 points from winning positions - which has been more than the previous two campaigns. Something to consider for those in-play bets if West Ham take the lead.

The hosts are hovering dangerously close to the drop zone now, and the mood cannot be a good one considering the heated argument between skipper Mark Noble and Angelo Ogbonna at Selhurst Park.

Back-to-back defeats a hard lesson for Rodgers

Leicester do have their own problems; but problems on a totally different scale to Saturday's opponents. The Foxes were looking potential title challengers to play catch-up to Liverpool, but any grandiose ideas were quickly shot down by Liverpool on Boxing Day - who ran out most impressive 0-4 winners at the King Power.

With back-to-back losses against the Reds and Manchester City, the outside hope is gone with the Foxes trading at 170.0169/1 in the Premier League Winner market, with Liverpool now at 1.061/18.

Whilst they were comprehensively outplayed on the 26th, it was a most un-Leicester like performance. They had just three attempts on goal with none on target - recording an xG of just 0.12. Brendan Rodgers tweaked the system, moving James Maddison from his usual position which opened up the right-hand side for Liverpool and Trent Alexander-Arnold - who absolutely destroyed them.

Rodgers spoke about a lack of physicality in the game and the fact they were handed a bit of a lesson. Which is even more meritorious considering Liverpool's travels around the globe.

West Ham fans wouldn't mind those sort of problems.

Drift on Foxes following loss makes them more of a bet

Markets can over-react, and that's exactly what we have for this game.

Leicester were 1.824/5 early in the week before the Liverpool game, but since that thrashing, have moved out to 2.01/1. I was all over Leicester with my initial thoughts, but I am not keen to back at odds-on away from home. However, with the drift, I think they look a pretty decent bet.

I expect Rodgers to play Maddison in his favoured No 10 role, as Leicester are best when winning the ball in the middle and setting Jamie Vardy on those runs. Whether Vardy will be rested due to the hectic fixture list is anyone's guess, but I hope not for the purposes of the bet, as West Ham's ponderous defence could have real problems with his pace.

If you are taking the 2.01/1 on the away win, Leicester have a good history in recent times at the Hammers; with four successive Premier League wins in their last four. Likewise, the Londoners are far from impressive with just one victory in their last nine against Leicester - with just one clean sheet in that run.

The hosts will welcome back Ryan Fredericks, but Aaron Cresswell is suspended. Goalkeeper Roberto is expected to continue in goal.

Home clean sheet looks very unlikely

I've mentioned Roberto, whose presence was cited as a negative before the surprising Chelsea victory at Stamford Bridge as he was just too shaky and erratic. His calamitous
display against Burnley would have been noted by Rodgers - especially at corners and set-pieces, and that could make up for a bet on the 'Yes' in the Both Teams To Score market.

West Ham's last five have all hit that particular target with results of 1-3, 2-3, 2-3, 1-1 and 1-2. Clean sheets are a real problem and the Londoners have conceded more goals at home (17) than they have scored.

However, the 'Yes' at 1.625/8 is far too short. likewise the Over 2.5 Goals at 1.674/6, so we know what the layers are expecting.

If Vardy starts, and scores, he would make history as only the seventh player to score 30 Premier League goals in a calendar year. Vardy To Score is 1.814/5.

Alan Dudman's Premier League P&L

2019/20: -9.12

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