Joe Dyer is not expecting much entertainment when West Brom host Newcastle in the early Sunday game and is basing his betting attack around a low-scoring affair in the Midlands...
"The market favours unders and so do I. Newcastle have rediscovered the art of defending in recent games but West Brom have had it all along, blanking the opposition in four of their 10 league games."
West Brom v Newcastle
Live on Sky Sports 1
After 10 games in the Premier League it's very much a case of so far so good for Alan Irvine at The Hawthorns. After failing to win any of his first four league fixtures, the former Sheffield Wednesday boss saw his team win three and draw two of the next six. It all adds up to 13 points and 11th place in the table - one place below Louis van Gaal's Manchester United. And when you put it that way, it's perhaps better than merely 'good'!
There's no obvious pattern to WBA's results, they've picked up more points on the road (seven v six) and while they needed a last minute equaliser to get a point from a home game against Crystal Palace they have also won 1-0 at Tottenham and held both Southampton and Manchester United. They are a solid, effective unit that can trouble good teams but also gives up points to poor Premier League outfits.
Craig Gardner has missed just 11 minutes of action this season but he sits this one out through suspension.
From a 1.182/11 shot to be the next Premier League boss out of a job to Manager of the Month contender, it's been some turnaround for Alan Pardew and Newcastle in the last month. The Magpies went into October with just one win in all competitions, came out of it unbeaten (W3, D1) and began November with a 1-0 defeat of Liverpool.
Those five games (a run that includes a Capital One Cup defeat of Manchester City) have seen Newcastle develop a miserly streak, recording clean sheets in games against Leicester, City and Liverpool.
Papiss Cissé is again troubled by his knee though should make the starting XI. Gabriel Obertan, so impressive in recent outings, will miss out.
I'm a little surprised to see such a disparity between these two teams' odds. The Baggies have home advantage but does that justify a quote of 2.3411/8 for the win or Newcastle trading as big as 3.55? I think this'll be close and it's a tempting to call a Newcastle draw for the second week in succession (though it was a losing bet for me in the Editors' Battle).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The market favours unders and so do I. Newcastle have recovered the art of defending in recent games but West Brom have had it all along, blanking the opposition in four of their 10 league games.
I'd say odds of 1.910/11 are acceptable if considering a bet, but I also find 3.55/2 tempting on under 1.5 with new England international Saido Berahino, Ayoze Perez and Cissé the only players to have scored more than one league goal this season. The latter bet certainly represents a trade if the game is goalless after an hour or so.
The stats point to that being pretty likely with Newcastle displaying a definite trend for late goals - Opta tell us that they have scored a higher proportion of second half goals (82%) than any other team in the top flight.
Sidemarket Selection - Correct Score/Halftime
I've already pointed to both teams' effective defensive units and Newcastle's preponderance for second-half goals, and a further Opta stat underlines the likelihood of seeing a tight, low-scoring affair. The Magpies are the only team in the top flight without a goal in the opening 30 minutes of a Premier League match this season. West Brom are not particularly fast out of the blocks either and backing 0-0 at 11.521/2 has Cash Out or trading potential if the first 45 minutes are goalless. The halftime draw can be backed at around 2.26/5 while a 0-0 draw at the break trades at 3.211/5.
1pt Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.613/5
1pt Back Halftime Draw @ 2.26/5 or better
Joe Dyer's Premier League P&L
Staked: 13 pts
Returned: 11.88 pts
P/L: -1.12 pts