West Brom v Arsenal: Baggies trip offers Gunners another win-to-nil opportunity

Pile in! Arsenal rate as great value to win to nil
Pile in! Arsenal rate as great value to win to nil
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Lewis Jones thinks the negatives vibes around Arsenal are unsubstantiated and is backing Arsene Wenger's men to cruise to victory in the lunchtime kick-off...

"Despite their obvious flaws, Wenger’s men are sensational at beating teams in the bottom half of the league away from The Emirates. From their last 23 games against teams in the bottom half Arsenal have suffered just one defeat, winning 17."

Back Arsenal to win to nil @ 3.259/4 or bigger (4pts)


West Brom v Arsenal
Saturday, KO 12:45
Live on BT Sport


West Brom

The Baggies started to arrest an early season slide down the Premier League but go into this tricky home tie on the back of straight defeats to nil against Newcastle and Chelsea.

New boss Alan Irvine has kept things very simple at the Hawthorns and doesn't tend to shuffle his pack much in terms of team selection.

But he'll have to make a couple of changes this weekend as Claudio Yacob was sent off against Chelsea and he joins Sebastien Pocognoli (thigh) on the sidelines, while the influential Jonas Olsson (Achilles) is out for six weeks.


Arsenal

The injury woes just keeping piling up for Arsene Wenger, just as a couple of key players get back fit another batch get struck down with long-term problems.

Jack Wilshere has been ruled out for three months with an ankle injury while Mikel Arteta suffered a calf injury in the win over Borussia Dortmund and could be out until the new year.

Those selection issues should bring Mathieu Flamini back into the fold and this also could be the game where Olivier Giroud, who made a goalscoring returning cameo from the bench against Man Utd, is given a chance to make his mark from the start alongside Danny Welbeck and Alexis Sanchez.

The Frenchman had been missing since breaking his foot against Everton in August. Meanwhile, Laurent Koscielny is pushing for a start after recovering from an achilles injury.


Match Odds

I'll cut straight to the chase here: an Arsenal away win has to be focal point of any betting attack on this game.

Wenger's men have come in for some over the top criticism this season when in truth they have performed to a similar level to what they were producing last season - in fact, I'd go as far to say that attacking-wise the Gunners have improved markedly with the additions of Sanchez and Welbeck.

The problem is with Arsenal and their reputation is that they love a flop on the big stage, see their embarrassing 3-3 draw with Anderlecht or constant failures against the fellow big boys in the Premier League as examples.

This always sets pundits and fans off on a tirade, harshly slating Wenger while making out like Arsenal are in crisis.

News flash: Arsenal are not in crisis.

They are safely through to the knockout stages of the Champions League and are just two points off fourth position. If you want a crisis, go ask any Chester City or Hereford fan and they'll put you straight.

Thankfully for us value seekers, this overreaction does filter its way through to the betting markets as the Gunners are always a few points bigger than they should be for matches against teams in the bottom half of the league.

The 1.910/11 available this weekend on an away win is a belting odds-on shot, and that's not a sentence I bring out to play that often.

Despite their obvious flaws mentally, Wenger's men are sensational at beating teams in the bottom half of the league away from The Emirates. From their last 23 games against teams in the bottom half Arsenal have suffered just one defeat, winning 17.

An even more remarkable stat is that during this fine record against the lesser sides on the road the Gunners have conceded just 11 goals. That averages out at just 0.47 goals conceded per game.

Further fuel is poured on the Arsenal fire by Opta, who tell us that Arsenal have won three and lost none of their last five Premier League visits to the Hawthorns and lost none of the last seven in all competitions.

It can be easy to get carried away by stats but this argument for backing the 1.910/11 is backed up by Arsenal's recent form.

Yes, they've lost the last two Premier League games but they were wholly unfortunate to lose to Manchester United last weekend and looked very confident and classy against a dangerous Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday.

A very average West Brom, who have only beaten Burnley at home this season, should be there for the taking. If you think things are just too good to be true for Arsenal then you can get 4.67/2 for a home win and 3.613/5 on the draw.


Arsenal to Win to Nil

This bet has already copped in two of Arsenal three away games against bottom-10 teams this season (Sunderland 2-0 & Aston Villa 3-0) and the odds of 3.259/4 or bigger should be snapped up here for it to happen again.

Relying on the Gunners to keep a clean sheet may seem daft on first viewing but the Baggies don't provide much threat through the middle - an area where Arsenal are notoriously weak.

This back-four that has allowed opposition strikers Bafétimbi Gomis, Abel Hernandez, Diego Costa, Sergio Aguero, Leonardo Ulloa, Steven Naismith and Wayne Rooney all to find the net this season.

However, West Brom's main man Saido Berahino is arguably one of the most overrated strikers in the Premier League and after scoring six in five games in September and October, Berahino has now gone four without registering, plus he's currently fighting a drink-drive charge and won't be the first young man to let off-the-field problems affect his game.

With Koscielny back in contention to partner Per Mertesacker, Arsenal rate as great value to win and win with a clean sheet.


Recommended Bet
Back Arsenal Win to Nil @ 3.259/4 or bigger
(4pts)


Lewis Jones Premier League P/L

Staked: 31pts
Returned: 46.8pts
P/L: +15.8pts

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