Watford v Man City
Live on Sky Sports 1
A run of five without defeat - four of which were wins - was ended last time at the hands of Tottenham. The Hornets were looking good for a draw after coming back from a goal down, but Nathan Ake's red card just after the hour finally took its toll in the 89th minute as they conceded a late winner.
Quique Sánchez Flores' side are still eighth in the table and that is a magnificent achievement for a club who have only just been promoted back to the Premier League. They have 29 points so while they still aren't technically safe, it's difficult to imagine their form dipping to such an extent that they are sucked into a relegation battle.
The manager will be forced to make at least one change to his starting XI as Ake is suspended but he has no new injury concerns and the Ighalo/Deeney partnership is set to terrorise another opposition defence.
A 0-0 draw at The King Power on Tuesday night meant that Manchester City were only able to get within three points of Arsenal by the turn of the year. Considering where they were following their loss at The Emirates on December 21st, that is arguably the best they could have hoped for really and they will be aiming to get back to the top as quickly as possible.
Manuel Pellegrini's side can't always be relied upon to get the results that they really should though and they've already been beaten five times this season. Their away form leaves a lot to be desired and that will be the one thing that Pellegrini will want to see an improvement on in 2016.
Sergio Aguero returned to the starting line up at Leicester and while he only managed his customary 60 minutes, an hour of the Argentine international is often better than 90 minutes of most other strikers in the Premier League.
Watford 5.14/1 Man City 1.758/11 The Draw 4.1
The visitors are even shorter than they were at Leicester and while they probably shaded that game, they didn't do enough to deserve the victory.
That draw made it six without a win away from home in the league and they netted just two goals during that period. The positive will be the clean sheet that they kept in Vincent Kompany's absence, but the Otamendi/Mangala centre half partnership hardly fills me with confidence.
Odion Ighalo notched his 14th goal of the campaign against Spurs and he's now scored in his last half a dozen outings. Troy Deeney is the perfect foil for the Nigerian and it's difficult to see one of them not finding the net here.
If Watford can contain Aguero then I think they are excellent value to earn a draw and while I am tempted to recommend an outright win bet on them, I think the draw is more likely and it's only marginally shorter.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.784/5 Under 2.5 Goals 2.265/4
As with most matches that Man City are involved in, over 2.5 goals is the odds-on favourite. I think we were all surprised by their goalless draw at Leicester, but that was actually their third 0-0 in five away fixtures.
Despite the attacks being stronger than the defences for both teams, given the prices on offer, I have to side with the under on this occasion.
The correct score market is usually my market of choice for a best cash out and I see no reason to change tact now. A low-scoring draw offers us the best odds given how I think the game will go and while I am sorely tempted to put up the 0-0 at a rather large 15.014/1, the form of Ighalo and the presence of Aguero puts me off just enough.
A 1-1 correct score is trading at the 9.08/1 mark and there is still enough juice in that price to give us plenty of profitable opportunities should the game go to plan.
Back The Draw @ 4.1
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.265/4
Best Cash Out
Back a 1-1 Correct Score @ 9.08/1
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