Watford v Middlesbrough: Boro defence will win point

Dan Fitch
13 January 2017

Can Aitor Karanka inspire Middlesbrough when they take on Watford?

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Two struggling sides clash when Watford host Middlesbrough and Dan Fitch thinks they'll both have to settle for a draw.

Back the 0-0 half-time score at 2.47/5

"Middlesbrough’s last three league games have been goalless at the break."

Watford v Middlesbrough
Saturday, 15:00

Watford

For the second successive season, Watford have seen a very bright start give way to poor form.

A run of five Premier League games without a victory has resulted in Watford dropping to within seven points of the relegation zone. It's not quite the time to panic yet, but unless Walter Mazzarri can turn things round quickly, it would be no surprise if the club owners looked for an alternative to ensure the club's safety.

Mazzarri has struggled to get the best from his strikers this season. Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo formed a deadly partnership last season, but have only scored five goals between them since Mazzarri took charge.

The Italian's job is not being made easier by the amount of his players that are currently unavailable. Adlene Guedioura is away at the Africa Cup of Nations; Nordin Amrabat, Daryl Janmaat, Adrian Mariappa , Roberto Pereyra and Isaac Success are all out injured; while Valon Behrami, Craig Cathcart, Heurelho Gomes, Jose Holebas, Stefano Okaka and Juan Zuniga are all doubts.

It's likely to be an emotional day in the stands with the club mourning legendary former manager Graham Taylor who passed away on Thursday.

Middlesbrough

Just three points below Watford are Middlesbrough. They are also in poor form, without a league win in their last three games.

Yet there is certainly hope for Aitor Karanka's side, as Middlesbrough are built on very solid foundations. They currently have the joint fourth best defensive record in the top flight, with only Manchester United, Chelsea and Spurs having conceded fewer goals this season.

If Karanka can add more potency to Middlesbrough's attack, then they should survive without too much trouble, but it is notoriously difficult to find value in the January transfer window.

Like his counterpart at Watford, Karanka has a number of absentees from his squad. Daniel Ayala is serving the first game of a three match ban, while Antonio Barragan, James Husband, Gaston Ramirez and Victor Valdes have all been missing through injury.

Ref Watch

Jon Moss will officiate. On the last occasion he took charge of a Middlesbrough match - their recent defeat to Liverpool - he only showed one yellow card.

Match Odds

Watford are the 2.6613/8 favourites, with Middlesbrough at 3.1511/5 and the draw at 3.259/4.

So poor has Watford's form been of late, that it's hard to justify them being favourites, even against struggling opposition. Middlesbrough may have only won one match away from home this season, but their five draws on the road are the most in the division. With that in mind, the draw looks overpriced.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Unders is the overwhelming favourite at 1.584/7, with overs out at 2.68/5.

Less than three goals may seem likely, but the price is just too slim to make it worth the risk. Instead go for the Half-Time Score of 0-0 at 2.47/5. Middlesbrough's last three league games have been goalless at the break.

To Score

The Watford captain Deeney is the narrow favourite in this market at 3.211/5, but just isn't consistent enough to worth backing.

Alvaro Negredo is better value at 3.412/5. He's got six goals in all competitions this season, with three coming in his last five games.

Recommended Bets
Back the draw at 3.259/4
Back the 0-0 half-time score at 2.47/5

Dan Fitch 2016/17 Season P/L

Staked: 281 pts
Returned: 268.08 pts
P/L: -12.92pts

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