Watford v Liverpool: Lay the away side at a ridiculously short price

Watford manager Walter Mazzarri has steered the Hornets safely to mid-table this season
Watford manager Walter Mazzarri has steered the Hornets safely to mid-table this season
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Top four-hunting Liverpool head to mid-table Watford on Monday night. Luke Moore previews all the action...

"The Reds have lost six games in the league this season and those defeats have come against the following teams: Crystal Palace, Hull, Leicester, Swansea, Bournemouth and Burnley."

Watford v Liverpool
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Watford

In all it's been another successful season for Watford, who've secured their top-flight status with some room to spare, and although they've been on the end of a couple of poor results recently they've actually won three of their last five. Those nine points are essentially what have guaranteed their safety for another year.

As is the Watford way they'll likely replace manager Walter Mazzarri in the summer, but overall he's done a decent enough job - recently, with the exception of the Hull reversal they've won the games you'd expect them to win and struggled against better sides like Tottenham.

On paper the Hornets have nothing to play for, but Liverpool are coming to town with a fairly poor record against teams that fit Watford's profile - there's a chance to go out with a bit of a bang in their penultimate home game of the season.


Liverpool

Liverpool are gunning for a top four spot, something that's hugely important for Jurgen Klopp's plans for the club. He's done a good job so far at Anfield with a paper-thin squad and a good few players down on what he needs to really stamp his imprint on the Premier League and beyond.

Their season has been dogged by concentration issues against the poorer sides, but the wobble they had in January aside, they've been decent enough and are worthy of their current position of third. The Reds have only lost one of their last eight, which was a disappointing result at home to Crystal Palace in which they failed yet again to deal with former-player Christian Benteke.

Jordan Henderson is still out, as is Sadio Mane. Adam Lallana is a doubt.


Match Odds

First things first - Liverpool should be nowhere near a 1.538/15 shot to win this away from home. Time and again, they've proven themselves unreliable against so-called lesser teams in games they should win. The Reds have lost six games in the league this season and those defeats have come against the following teams: Crystal Palace, Hull, Leicester, Swansea, Bournemouth and Burnley. They should have won every single one of them.

As a result you cannot back them at such a short price, away from home, against a team with Watford's profile.

Watford are a nice price at 7.413/2 but I think I'll advise a lay of the away team to keep the draw onside.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

I don't have a hugely strong view here - both teams have recent history of tight, low-scoring games as well as exciting high-scoring ones, and if was pushed to have a bet I'd probably, on balance, be looking at Overs. A price of 1.774/5 doesn't grab me though so I don't think I'll have an interest here.

It's probably worth remembering that the first fixture in the league between these two ended up in a 6-1 Liverpool win, something that's inflating the Opta stat of 3.29 goals per game on average.

Unders is available at a nicer price of 2.245/4.


Recommended Bet

Lay Liverpool at 1.538/15

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Luke Moore 2016-17 P/L

Staked: 66pts
Returned: 83.26pts
P/L: +17.26pts

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