Tottenham v West Ham: Spurs to stay on a roll with fifth straight win in new home

Andrew Atherley
26 April 2019

Mauricio Pochettino's Tottenham have made a flying start in their new stadium

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Andrew Atherley expects the in-form hosts to take another three points from this London derby and in the process cement third place in the Premier League...

"For West Ham to win they must find a way to become the first team to score in the new stadium and that won't be easy given that they have had six blanks in their last eight away games in the Premier League going back to late December."

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Back Tottenham to win to nil at 2.77/4

Tottenham v West Ham
Saturday 27 April, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports

Tottenham in control

Tottenham won 1-0 at home to Brighton on Tuesday night, cementing third place and putting them four points clear in the race for the Champions League places.

Mauricio Pochettino's side also have the best goal difference and, having seen their rivals drop points on Monday and Wednesday, their destiny is firmly in their own hands with two home games in their final three Premier League fixtures.

Pochettino is likely to rotate his squad with a view to the Champions League home match against Ajax on Tuesday night. Possible changes include Ben Davies and Davinson Sanchez coming into the defence, Eric Dier taking a midfield berth and Son Heung-Min playing as he misses the midweek european fixture due to suspension.

Harry Kane and Moussa Sissoko remain sidelined, while Erik Lamela and Harry Winks are being assessed for possible returns from injury.

Mid-table drifters

West Ham are drifting in mid-table, 12 points clear of relegation and eight points off seventh place, and they have taken just a point in the four matches since they passed the 40-point mark.

Admittedly they have faced tough games, losing to Everton, Chelsea and Manchester United before stopping the rot with last week's 2-2 home draw against Leicester.

Manuel Pellegrini has the chance to assess different players and Jack Wilshere looks set to feature, having come off the bench late in the Leicester match after almost five months out.

Carlos Sanchez is another long-term absentee who is nearing a return.

There could be some shuffling of the attack, with Lucas Perez having scored as a substitute against Leicester and Javier Hernandez reportedly available after missing the Leicester game. Manuel Lanzini could play a part too, although he may not be risked at this stage of the season.

Aaron Cresswell could return at left-back after missing the last two games.

Excellent start in new home

Tottenham have a 100% record in their new stadium and are yet to concede a goal, having beaten Crystal Palace 2-0, Manchester City 1-0 (in the Champions League), Huddersfield 4-0 and Brighton 1-0.

That is an excellent record but it is worth noting that the only match where they scored in the first half was against Huddersfield (2-0 up at half-time) and the breakthrough against Brighton did not come until the 88th minute when Christian Eriksen scored.

The home record was already positive at Wembley and the only visitors who have taken points this season are Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United and Wolves, all top-seven sides.

For West Ham to win they must find a way to become the first team to score in the new stadium and that won't be easy given that they have had six blanks in their last eight away games in the Premier League going back to late December.

Against that, they scored on their last trip at Old Trafford in an excellent performance that deserved better than a 2-1 defeat. They will be dangerous if they can show the same creativity, although Tottenham in their current mood are a much stiffer proposition than United.

Spurs have scored in their last nine home games in all competitions and have won 17 out of 22 at home this season when getting on the scoresheet, which points to a high probability of another home win.

Eleven of those 17 home wins have been to nil, which is the strongest stat behind bigger odds than the straight win. A Tottenham win to nil is available at 2.77/4.

Strong defence

The goals figures for Tottenham home games are on the low side, mainly because they have a good defensive record. They have kept seven clean sheets out of 17, rising to seven out of 11 against teams below the top seven, and average 0.76 goals conceded per game (bettered only by Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea).

A lot depends on whether West Ham score and that is open to question as their tally of eight blanks in 17 away games is exceeded only by Huddersfield and Cardiff, both of whom are in the relegation zone and lost to nil away to Tottenham.

Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.68/5.

Opta Stat

West Ham have lost their last six away league games against 'big six' opposition by an aggregate score of 3-16. Indeed, they're winless in 20 such matches (D6 L14) since a 2-1 win at Man City in September 2015. Tottenham are 2.29 to win by at least two goals off -1.5 on the Asian handicap.

Premier League 2018-19 P/L

Staked: 31pts
Return: 46.7pts
P/L: +15.7pts

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