Tottenham v Brighton
Tuesday April 23, 19:45
After the Lord Mayor's show for Spurs
All things considered, a 1-0 defeat at Manchester City on Saturday wasn't a result they should be ashamed of. It's always tough to go back to the ground where you achieved such a historic result in the Champions League just a few days later and try and do it all again, when you've exerted so much physical and emotional energy.
Add in a few injuries, some tired legs and the fact this was after all Manchester City they were up against and you can understand why Mauricio Pochettino won't have been too disappointed.
One does however have to question his reluctance to ever play Fernando Llorente from the start. With games coming thick and fast, the veteran Spaniard deserves a game sooner or later.
Brighton can't just look to defend
Brighton will have been extremely happy with their 0-0 draw at Wolves. Not only was it a vital point in their relegation battle against a side who has generally been very strong at home but, it stopped the rot after two bad defeats in the past week.
Having said all that, it's worrying just how little they produced going forward on Saturday. Unless their gameplan is to go for 0-0 for every remaining game of the season, they're going to have to either change tactics or intent, if they actually want to score goals.
Tottenham are 1.34 but that's not really a price to get too excited about. Nor is it the way we go about our tipping on this site.
But how about the Tottenham win with less than 2.5 goals in it at 3.4? That's more like it.
The continued absence of Harry Kane always blunts Spurs' ability to score freely and though Heung-Min Son and Lucas Moura have both contributed greatly since Kane's injury with goals and plenty of hard work, it's not quite the same.
If I close my eyes and try to imagine how this game might pan out, I can imagine Brighton getting plenty of men behind the ball, working tirelessly and hoping a few long balls up to Glenn Murray 'stick' so the former Palace man can try and make something happen.
Spurs were actually pretty good at the Etihad in defence and another good showing here by Jan Vertonghen and co could easily see them keep a clean sheet while at the other end, goals might be at a premium, too.
It finished 2-0 here last season and it may well be a similar story this time round so a home win with under 2.5 goals is definitely the bet.
Son is 1.83 and that's not the worst bet for a player who made City's defence look like something out of League One in midweek. Fatigue may be a little bit of a problem for a player who has given so much over the past couple of weeks but then again the South Korean is one of the fittest players around. We're not keen on the 3.5 he's first goalscorer, though; that's simply far too short.
You could also make a case for Lucas Moura at a considerably bigger 2.5 to get a goal. Spurs are playing the pair of them upfront and whereas Son is arguably the better finisher and by far the more experienced player at Premier League level, it was Moura who grabbed a hat-trick in that 4-0 win over Huddersfield a couple of weeks ago.
No-one else for Spurs is in any great scoring form while Murray is under-priced at 3.5 given he's now gone five games without a goal. So have Brighton as a team for that matter, so there's hardly anyone in their camp worth a second look to score.
Tottenham may have to be a little patient here and Brighton will do their utmost to make life tough for their attackers. They certainly did against Wolves on Saturday.
With that in mind, there's more value in going with Draw=Tottenham at 4.0 than Tottenham/Tottenham at 1.9 in the half time/fill time market.
If you want to play the same-game multi bet option, then how abut this: a Tottenham win with less than 3.5 goals in the game and Son getting one of them comes to 3.75. None of those are unlikely at all and it's not a bad wager so we're going wit that as well.