Tottenham v Newcastle: Spurs backed to swipe Toon aside in Super Sunday showdown

Mauricio Pochettino
Spurs have W41-D7-L4 at home against bottom-half clubs under Mauricio Pochettino

Spurs survived a Man City onslaught last weekend but will have a much easier ride on Sunday when struggling Newcastle arrive at White Hart Lane, says Mark O'Haire...

"Tottenham (1.26) were only quoted at a shorter pre-match price against Burnley (1.20) and Huddersfield (1.20) last season"

Tottenham v Newcastle
Sunday August 25, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

Tottenham survive City onslaught

Tottenham scored with their only two shots on-target to pinch a point against defending champions Manchester City last weekend. Mauricio Pochettino's men lost the shot count 30-3, conceded 12 efforts from inside the penalty area and saw the Citizens rack up 3.39 Expected Goals (xG) in a largely one-sided encounter that ended 2-2 at The Etihad.

Erik Lamela's 20-yard strike and substitute Lucas Moura's header proved crucial for Spurs with City rattling the woodwork and seeing a stoppage-time goal ruled out by VAR. It promoted Pochettino to say with a wry smile, "I am in love with VAR. I wasn't agreeing with it from the beginning when we started talking about it, but sometimes you get the benefit like today or in the Champions League."

Christian Eriksen returned to the starting XI last weekend, although Moura's impact could see the Brazilian recalled to the team XI on Sunday. Tottenham are boosted by the return of Son Heung-min from suspension, while new signing Giovani Lo Celso will hope for more minutes off the bench. Question marks remain over Jan Vertonghen's condition, and Dele Alli remains doubtful.

Newcastle flop in Norfolk

BruceUnhappy1280.jpg

Newcastle continue to struggle in the Premier League sun. The Toon's convincing 3-1 defeat at newly-promoted Norwich last weekend means the Magpies have registered only two triumphs from their last 29 top-flight road trips in August (W2-D10-L17), a concerning return ahead of a devilishly difficult trip to a Big Six outfit on Sunday afternoon.

Manager Steve Bruce had seen signs of promise from his side in their narrow opening defeat at home to Arsenal but would have been dismayed at how his side were so easily overrun at Carrow Road. It might have been different had debutant Emil Krafth and Joelinton not spurned two glorious first half chances before the Canaries opened the scoring.

Jonjo Shelvey grabbed a consolation for Newcastle but this disjointed and toothless display has only ramped up the pressure on Bruce who admitted, "We were nowhere near good enough and it was a disappointing afternoon with and without the ball."
Allan Saint-Maximin should return from injury and Joelinton is also expected to shake off a knock.

Spurs to swipe Toon aside

Newcastle have won 21 Premier League matches against Spurs - only versus Aston Villa (22) have they enjoyed more victories in the competition. The Magpies have also scored more goals against Tottenham than versus any other Premier League team, although Spurs have claimed top honours in each of their last four head-to-head fixtures.

Tottenham 1.261/4 were only quoted at a shorter pre-match price against Burnley (1.20) and Huddersfield (1.20) last season and it's difficult to dismiss the skinny odds considering Mauricio Pochettino has overseen a 66% win rate in home Premier League matches since taking charge with that return improving to W41-D7-L4 against bottom-half clubs.

Newcastle 15.50 have tumbled to joint-favouritism for relegation and the unhappy Toon have tended have come away empty-handed in all 12 trips to Big Six sides since returning to the top-flight. Half of those losses saw the Magpies fire blanks with their opponents picking up maximum points by a margin of two goals or more in 50% of those 12 fixtures.

With Spurs too short to support, it's worth entering the Asian Handicap market where a home victory with a -1.5 handicap hurdle can be backed at an appetising 1.784/5. We'll be paid out should Tottenham run out winners by at least two goals.

Little appeal in skinny goals quotes

Newcastle conceded at least twice in nine of their 12 trips to the Big Six during Rafa Benitez's reign and so there has to be concern for the Toon when they travel to Tottenham on Sunday. The Magpies were easily exposed at Norwich and are likely to come under serious stress from a Spurs side eager to make their mark after last week's Etihad drama.

The capital club have notched two or more goals in 30/51 (59%) home encounters against bottom-half stragglers under Mauricio Pochettino's watch and the hosts should be expected to repeat the feat here. Even so, 1.594/7 quotes on Over 2.5 Goals make little appeal considering Newcastle's meek threat in forward areas.

Mark's 2019/20 Profit/Loss

Staked: 9.00 pts
Returned: 5.05 pts
P/L: -3.95 pts

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