The Big Match Tactical View: Southampton v Swansea

Michael Cox
31 January 2015

Graziano Pelle will lead the line for high-flying Southampton

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The final game of the Premier League weekend sees a clash between two overachievers this season - and two great footballing sides too. Michael Cox looks at the midfield battle, while Alan Thompson provides expert betting analysis...

"With Wilfried Bony sold and Gylfi Sigurdsson suspended, Swansea are weaker in the final third."

Back Southampton to win 1-0 at 7.06/1

Southampton v Swansea
Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1
Match Odds: Southampton 1.625/8, Swansea 7.06/1, The Draw 4.1

This is an intriguing Premier League clash between two impressive, well-run and attractive football sides who should produce an interesting tactical battle. The key will be the midfield clash, as both teams attempt to stamp their authority on the contest from the outset.

Both Southampton and Swansea like to dominate possession, although they attempt to do this in different way. Southampton's approach is about winning the ball quickly, playing with a high line and pressing in midfield, rather than soaking up pressure in deeper positions. Their passing is actually sometimes quite direct, especially when they play long balls up to Graziano Pelle, and attempt to get midfield runners supporting him quickly.

Swansea, on the other hand, are all about short passing and ball retention in midfield, and they'll enjoy long spells of possession at some point here - it's just about whether they can manage to penetrate Southampton and create chances.

Crucially, considering both these teams like dominating the centre of the pitch, they're without important players through injury. Ronald Koeman will have to do without both Morgan Schneiderlin and Victor Wanyama, his two midfield enforcers, which means we're likely to see a trio of Steven Davis, Harrison Reed and James Ward-Prowse, although Dusan Tadic could play at the top of the midfield triangle with Ward-Prowse out wide. These are all good technical players and intelligent tactically, though they lack the power of Schneiderlin and Wanyama.

This might not be such a big problem considering Swansea are without their best player this season, Gylfi Sigurdsson. His absence means Jonjo Shelvey will probably play at the top of the trio, with both Leon Britton and Tom Carroll in deeper positions, meaning the deep-lying partnership with be even more about ball retention than usual. Swansea completed the signing of Southampton's Jack Cork on Friday - more evidence of the similar possession-based approach - but it would be a surprise to see him feature from the outset.

The midfield battle might be key, but ultimately the game will be decided by who creates, and converts, more chances - and in this respect, you have to fancy Southampton. Swansea are in a state of flux without Wilfried Bony - we're yet to see if Bafetimbi Gomis can come up with the goals - and with Garry Monk's side so dependent upon Sigurdsson for creativity, they're unquestionably weaker in the final third.

Southampton have no such problems. Sadio Mane is unlikely to start having returned from the Africa Cup of Nations, but Tadic and Pelle are raring to go, and will probably appreciate a technical game like this.

Swansea will look to play through their two wingers, Jefferson Montero and Nathan Dyer, but Southampton full-backs Nathaniel Clyne and Ryan Bertrand have been in outstanding form, and should be up to the task.

Statistics from recent meetings between these team are interesting: the last five matches have seen under 2.5 goals, Southampton have kept a clean sheet in the last four, and won the last three. It's easy to imagine those various runs being maintained here in a patient, cautious battle where Southampton are simply more likely to find the net.

It's also impossible to ignore form: Southampton have collected ten points from their last four matches, Swansea just two. Backing the home side to win 1-0, available at 11.010/1, seems good value to me.

Recommended bet:
Back Southampton to win 1-0 at 7.06/1

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Saints are the form team in the Premier League over their last six games, winning five and drawing one. They have also kept three clean sheets in the process, producing a goal difference of +9 (F12, A3). Swansea by contrast over the same period have won two, and the Swans are without a win in their last four, conceding eleven goals in the process.

Only Chelsea (3) have conceded fewer home goals than Southampton’s seven this campaign and only two of those goals have been conceded before the half time whistle, Ronald Koeman’s men are yet to be behind at the interval at St Mary’s. Only Manchester United and Chelsea have breached their defences before the break this season.

The Swans don’t have the best recent record against Southampton, they haven’t beaten themn since 2008 (in the Championship) and they haven’t won on the road against Sunday's opponents in their last 10 attempts. To put that in perspective, their last away league victory against Southampton was 1953. Swansea beat a struggling Hull City recently on the road but that was their only away win since the opening day of the season where they won at Old Trafford and confidence would have been severely dented with the 5-0 defeat at home last week against Chelsea.

Opta tell us that once Southampton get ahead they tend to go on and win the games - Southampton have dropped fewer points from winning positions than any other team in the top flight (two). I will be backing Ronald Koeman’s men to continue their excellent season by backing Southampton/Southampton in the Half Time/Full Time market @ 2.56.