The Big Match Tactical View: Everton v Liverpool

Michael Cox
17 December 2016

Adam Lallana has been in fine form

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Everton got back to winning ways against Arsenal - can they repeat the trick against the city rivals? Michael Cox looks at the tactic while Alan Thompson finds some interesting bets...

"This fixture has famously seen more red cards than any other in Premier League history – 21 – but the real blood-and-thunder days are probably behind us"

Everton v Liverpool
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Everton 4.3100/30, Liverpool 2.01/1, The Draw 3.814/5.

Monday night's Merseyside derby could turn into a battle of the two big Belgians upfront - Everton fans are accustomed to Romelu Lukaku banging in the goals, but Liverpool can turn to Divock Origi. With five goals in five matches, Origi is in tremendous form and should lead Liverpool's charge here.

In truth, Everton have an appalling recent record in Merseyside derbies. They've won just one of the last 19 Premier League against Liverpool, which is particularly surprising considering that includes a period when Everton were often pushing for a finishing place ahead of the Reds. Ronald Koeman will be hoping the surprise midweek victory over Arsenal proves the turning point in their season.

Koeman will be forced to bring Ramiro Fuenes Mori into his side, after Phil Jagielka was dismissed in that 2-1 win over the Gunners. Fuenes Mori is a somewhat impetuous and positionally suspect defender, and this might prove problematic against a Liverpool side so effective at exploiting space in the opposition backline.

It was notable that Everton's equaliser in midweek came when Seamus Coleman converted Leighton Baines' left-wing cross, and we can expect to see the full-backs flying forward again here. Neither Roberto Firmino or Sadio Mane particularly like tracking back towards their own goal - they're better at pressing high up - so good overlapping runs might cause problems.

Ross Barkley returned to the side against Arsenal and should keep his place in the midfield zone alongside Gareth Barry and Idrissa Gueye. Everton will need tenacity and mobility to compete against Liverpool's trio, and Barkley must work hard without the ball.

Going forward, Aaron Lennon and Enner Valencia supported Lukaku against Arsenal, and the same duo will probably start here - Valencia was impressive in terms of work rate, in particular, and Koeman might want to use a natural forward up against James Milner, who has made a couple of mistakes at left-back in recent weeks.

Liverpool's side is also likely to be unchanged, even if Jurgen Klopp will have an eye on rotation over the Christmas period. Origi is in fantastic form upfront, although this has pushed Firmino to the left where he's less comfortable. Mane was very lively in the midweek win over Middlesbrough, and could be the obvious goal threat here with his quick runs into the channels. Koeman, his former coach at Southampton, might have specific instructions for stopping him, however.

Adam Lallana bagged two goals in midweek and his late midfield runs could prove important in Liverpool's attacking play, especially when Nathaniel Clyne gets forward down the right. Georginio Wijnaldum will play a deeper role, with Jordan Henderson sitting deep and playing balls out to the flanks - perhaps watching the runs of Barkley, too.

Joel Matip should return after missing the Middlesbrough game, while Simon Mignolet will presumably keep his place after a clean sheet - Loris Karius will have to be content with a place on the bench.

Liverpool's gegenpressing could work very nicely in this context - a high-tempo, fast and furious evening match at a cold Goodison Park. Klopp's side will attempt to win the ball quickly, forcing quick turnovers and playing good passing combinations. The overlapping runs of the full-backs might be crucial, allowing Mane and Firmino into more central positions to combine with Lallana.

Everton might play more directly than usual, looking for long passes to Lukaku in the channels. Barkley and Lennon should offer a counter-attacking threat, too, although Gueye and Barry aren't the most creative deep-lying midfield duo.

This fixture has famously seen more red cards than any other in Premier League history - 21 - but the real blood-and-thunder days are probably behind us, and this probably won't be a particularly dirty game. Avoid backing a high number of bookings.

I'm amazed Liverpool are trading at around evens - that's short enough for me to consider laying them. Personally, I fancy a draw here, and 1-1 looks good at around 8.07/1.

The Betfair Trader's View - Alan Thompson

Liverpool looked like they were starting to stutter, following that incredible defeat at Bournemouth where they were leading 3-1 with 15 minutes to go, then drawing at Anfield against West Ham after taking an early lead, but their second half performance at Middlesbrough certainly looked like they were back to their best.

Their timing could not be better as they face a rejuvenated Everton side who halted a five game winless streak and only one win in their last 10 Premier League starts, with a battling come from behind win at home against Arsenal.

Both sides needed their midweek performances to boost morale before this huge fixture. The last four meetings between these local rivals at Goodison Park have ended in a stalemate, Everton haven’t managed to win this game at home since 2010 and will be desperate to put that right.

Liverpool look plenty short enough in the Match Odds to win this for me at around 2.01/1, against a side that have certainly had their problems but they are unbeaten in their opening eight home games this season. The Reds have conceded 14 goals on the road and kept only two clean sheets in their nine starts, I have to be a layer of Liverpool at 2.01/1 or shorter in the Match Odds.

Liverpool’s 16 games this season have produced a league high 60 goals and Everton’s last two fixtures have produced eight, so it’s no surprise to find Over 2.5 Goals trading odds-on but I did think it would be even shorter than 1.84/5, so if you don’t mind backing odds-on then that price looks acceptable to me.