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Swansea v West Brom: Grandstand finish for Swans

Paul Clement has turned Swansea's season around
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Dave Tindall says Swansea can celebrate survival with a convincing win over West Brom on final day...


"Whichever way you come at it (head-to-head, recent Swansea form, latest West Brom form) the 60% strike-rate in all those elements suggests it's legitimate to push the boat out a little and look beyond the basic Swansea win."

Back Swansea (-1) at 14/5 (Sportsbook).

Swansea v West Brom
Sunday 21 May, 15:00


Swansea


Bottom in January and with the worst defensive record in the Premier League, it's been a superb achievement from new boss Paul Clement to ensure safety before the final game of the season.

Relegation seemed inevitable as they lurched from one disaster to another under Bob Bradley but Swansea took decisive action and it's paid off.

In fact, it's fascinating to think what would have happened to Middlesbrough if they'd appointed Clement as their potential saviour.

Sorting out the defence was perhaps the biggest key and a clean sheet means the Swans would have conceded 19 less goals in the second half of the season than they did in the first.

With goals going in at the other end, thanks mainly to Fernando Llorente (14 this term), Swansea would officially be eighth based on a table since Clement's arrival.


West Brom

Relegation was never a threat for West Brom and full credit to Tony Pulis for that.

But it's hard to get away from the accusation that since they beat Arsenal 3-1 to go past the magic 40-point mark, they've downed tools.

Since that win they've taken just two points from a possible 24 and it's now six losses out of seven after the Baggies fell to a 3-1 defeat at Man City on Tuesday night.

If you're a West Brom fan, you'd have happily accepted ninth place with a game to go but, with eighth as high as they were going to go (there's an amazing 16-point gap up to Everton in seventh), motivation has been a big problem and it's shown.

It's a familiar story too. West Brom have lost six and drawn three of their last 10 matches on final day. The one win came when they needed three points to survive.


Match Odds

Swansea are a fairly generous [2.12] to round off the season with a win in front of their home fans.

It's [3.85] for West Brom to shake themselves out of their slumber while the draw is [3.6].

Looking at recent head-to-head shows that Swansea have enjoyed this fixture, winning four of the last five in Wales.

Also note that Welshman Pulis has struggled on his trips to the Liberty Stadium, losing three of four.


Handicap

Delving a little deeper and Swansea have won three of the last five home games against West Brom by two goals or more.

Those numbers repeat when looking at West Brom's recent defeats. They've lost three of the last five away games by at least two goals.

Therefore, with a 'we're staying up' party atmosphere at the Liberty Stadium, it looks fair enough to back Swansea (-1) at 14/5 with the Sportsbook.

Three of Swansea's last five wins (home and away) have been achieved with a winning margin of over a goal so whichever way you come at it (head-to-head, recent Swansea form, latest West Brom form) the 60% strike-rate in all those elements suggests it's legitimate to push the boat out a little and look beyond the basic Swansea win.


Ref watch

Mike Dean has shown 136 yellows in 35 matches this season (average 3.89).

He's been calm of late, his bookings count totalling three or less in five of his last six matches.

Dean has yet to ref a home Swansea game this season but he's been kept busy in two West Brom away games, showing 12 yellows (seven of those to Baggies players).


Opta stat

Paul Clement has won eight of his 18 Premier League games this season as Swansea City manager, more than double the number than Francesco Guidolin, Bob Bradley and Alan Curtis won in their 18 games combined this season in the competition (3).


Recommended Bet

Back Swansea (-1) at 14/5 (Sportsbook)


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Dave Tindall's P/L, 2016/17

Staked: 60pts
Returned: 62.35pts
P/L: +2.35pts

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