Dan Fitch is backing Swansea to beat Stoke but can't see them quite pulling off the miracle they need to survive.
"It’s a good price for a Swansea side that are not exactly lacking in motivation, especially as it is possible that Manchester City could beat Southampton by a large margin."
Swansea [1.96] v Stoke [4.2]; The Draw [3.85]
Swansea's fate is not Carvalhal's fault
Swansea require a miracle to stay up. It would be one of the biggest shocks in the history of the Premier League if circumstances conspired to relegate Southampton rather than the Swans.
Carlos Carvalhal's team must beat Stoke and hope Manchester City thrash Southampton on the final day of the season. Swansea's goal difference is -27, compared to that of -18 for Southampton. It will therefore take a ten goal swing to take place for Swansea to survive.
It seems as if Carvalhal's contract will not be extended at the end of the season and Swansea will look for a new manager. To be fair to the Portuguese coach, he's actually done a fairly good job with limited resources, when you consider that Swansea were bottom and five points shy of safety when he took over. Poor recruitment over recent seasons has left Swansea without a cutting edge and that is not Carvalhal's fault.
He will be without the injured Kyle Bartley, Wilfried Bony and Leroy Fer for his last game in charge, while Mike van der Hoorn is another doubt.
Striker a priority for toothless Stoke
Stoke's defeat to Crystal Palace last weekend meant that they became the first club to be relegated from the Premier League this season.
Like Swansea, the Potters have been punished for the lack of goalscoring ability in their squad. They were also porous at the back during the early months of the season under Mark Hughes, which is a combination that was only ever going to end one way.
Stoke ignored the obvious lack of a regular goalscorer in both of the last two transfer windows and paid the price. If they want to bounce back, then finding a striker able to find the net regularly in the Championship, is an absolute priority.
Unlike his counterpart at Swansea, it seems as if Paul Lambert will continue his reign at the club. He's without Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Bruno Martins Indi, Jese and Stayylidis Konstantinos for the trip to Wales.
Anthony Taylor will officiate. The card happy ref has made five or more bookings in each of his last three outings.
Big price for motivated Swans
Swansea are the [1.96] favourites, with the draw at [3.85] and Stoke at [4.2].
It's a good price for a Swansea side that are not exactly lacking in motivation, especially as it is possible that Manchester City could beat Southampton by a large margin. That said, the factors to worry about are that Swansea have not scored in four games and that Stoke could play with a renewed sense of freedom having already been relegated.
Go with unders when low scorers clash
Over 2.5 goals is the favourite at [1.81], with unders out at [2.1].
Swansea need to score goals, but it seems a huge price for unders when you consider both their and Stoke's lack of potency. Seven of Swansea's last eight Premier League games have seen less than 2.5 goals.
Ayew should lead market
Tammy Abraham leads the To Score market at [2.2]. Abraham looked bright when he came on against Southampton in midweek, but it seems strange that he should be the favourite to find the net when he's not been starting of late.
A better bet is surely Jordan Ayew at [2.6]. Ayew is Swansea's top scorer in all competitions this season, with eleven goals.
Dan Fitch 2017/18 Season P/L
Staked: 448.0 pts
Returned: 464.37 pts
P/L: +16.37 pts