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Swansea v Huddersfield: No liberty for attackers in South Wales

Can Paul Clement galvanise his Swansea team?
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It might not be the highest profile fixture of the weekend but betting is all about value and Paul Robinson thinks he's found some in the match between Swansea and Huddersfield...

"Huddersfield have only been beaten once in three away fixtures since their return to the top flight and they kept clean sheets at both Palace and Burnley."

Back The Draw @ [3.2]

Swansea v Huddersfield
Saturday 14 October, 15:00 BST


Will the Swans be flying south next summer?

Paul Clement flew the Swans to safety at the end of last term by leading his side to a run of four victories and a draw from their final five matches of the campaign. However, a 2-0 win at Selhurst Park aside, his players have reverted back to ugly ducklings this season.

Scoring goals has been the main issue for the South Wales club and while the players who take the field are ultimately responsible for putting the ball in the net, the tactics of the manager haven't exactly helped them.

The former top class assistant is yet to prove himself as a number one, and despite having the services of Tammy Abraham and the returning, Wilfried Bony, he is yet to get the best out of them.

In fairness to the manager, the departure of playmaker, Gylfi Sigurdsson, clearly hasn't helped matters in the final third and Renato Sanches will need time to get used to the pace of the Premier League.

Nevertheless, Swansea come into the game sitting in 18th place with just five points to their name from a possible 21. They have won just once and scored a paltry three goals - two of which came at Crystal Palace.

As for the team news, Clement has stated that Bony is 50/50 due to a hamstring injury, while Sanches is a serious doubt having picked up a thigh strain while on international duty.


Solid start by Wagner's men

The Terriers had made a great start to life in the Premier League as they thrashed Crystal Palace 3-0 - a result which doesn't look as impressive as it did at the time - beat Newcastle 1-0 and then drew 0-0 against Southampton.

Since then though the results have dried up somewhat as they have drawn two and lost two of their last four outings, with the latest 4-0 loss at home to Spurs a particular lowlight.

David Wagner's men have also been struggling to put the ball in the net of late as they have scored five times in seven Premier League fixtures this year - and four of them came in their first two matches.

Their main attacking threat is Steve Mounie as he has got two of the goals, to add to the 14 he netted for Montpellier in Ligue One last season. The Benin striker has been out injured since their 2-0 defeat at West Ham, but he has a chance of being back for their trip to the Liberty.


Neither team a stand-out

The Betfair layers have installed the hosts as [2.24] favourites for this fixture, with the draw at [3.2] and the visitors trading as the [4.0] outsiders.

Swansea's home record doesn't instill much confidence though as they have played three and lost three, scoring just one goal in the process. A 4-0 loss to Manchester United can just about be excused, but they were then beaten by both Newcastle and Watford.

Huddersfield have only been beaten once in three away fixtures since their return to the top flight and they kept clean sheets at both Palace and Burnley. They did lose 2-0 at West Ham, but four points from nine for a promoted club is a fair return - no matter the opponents.

There really isn't much between these two teams and I very much doubt that there will be loads of goals. Of the prices on offer, I am very much drawn to the draw at [3.2].


Limited attacking threat on both sides

It can't possibly come as a shock that Under 2.5 Goals is the heavy favourite in this particular market, and even the low odds of [1.58] represent a bit of value for me.

The pair of them have scored just eight goals between them in 14 matches to date this year, which is marginally above 0.5 per 90 minutes. To make things even worse for those who want to back Over 2.5 at [2.64], the main absentees from the match are looking to be attacking players.

It's also worth noting that if we look at the Premier League table based on how many goals have been scored in the game, Swansea are at the bottom with an average of 1.57 goals per match they have been involved in, and Huddersfield are second bottom with a 1.71 average.

I'm not really interested in tipping a [1.58] bet as a main selection though, as I want something at a bigger price. That takes me to the Correct Score Market as 0-0 is trading at around the [8.2] mark.

Both of these teams have had two goalless draws each this season and with the players low on confidence, we should get a good run for our money at the very least.

A further positive for a 0-0 is that Opta tells us that Swansea have attempted the fewest shots in the Premier League this season (46) and have also registered just 30 shots in open play, a league-low.


Ref Watch

Paul Tierney takes charge of only his second top flight game of the season as he's been busy in the Championship and in League Two. In five outings this year he is yet to show a red card and he is averaging three bookings per game.

Neither Swansea nor Huddersfield have completed a match with anything less than XI men on the field either and their yellow card count is 11 and 12 respectively.

I can't imagine that this will be a particularly dirty affair and it might be worth a look at 25 Bookings Points and Under when the market forms nearer to kick off.


Recommended Bets
Back The Draw @ [3.2]
Back A 0-0 Correct Score @ [8.2]


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2017/18 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 17pts
Returned: 27.23pts
P/L: +10.23pts

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