Swansea v Burnley: Tight call but Liberty form might swing it for flying Swans

Carlos Carvalhal has reinvigorated Swansea's outlook with bold attacking play
Carlos Carvalhal has reinvigorated Swansea's outlook with bold attacking play
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Andrew Atherley predicts another positive result for the hosts under new boss Carlos Carvalhal when out-of-form Burnley visit the Liberty Stadium...

"With Carvalhal's outlook and their current form, Swansea are fancied to score and that will give them a good chance of taking something from the game."

Recommended Bet
Back Swansea on draw no bet at [1.74]

Swansea v Burnley
Saturday 10 February, 15:00

Revival continues

Swansea's revival under Carlos Carvalhal continued apace on Tuesday night when they reached the fifth round of the FA Cup with a thumping 8-1 home win over Notts County of League Two.

The Swans were five points from safety when Carvalhal took over in late December but are now 17th, just above the relegation zone on goal difference.

The dark cloud is the season-ending injuries suffered by Wilfried Bony and Leroy Fer in last Saturday's 1-1 draw at Leicester, adding to a sidelined list that includes Renato Sanches, Angel Rangel and Leon Britton.

Tom Carroll could fill Fer's midfield role, having replaced him at Leicester, and Carvalhal can also call on his January signings, striker Andre Ayew and midfielder Andy King.

Against the odds

Burnley continue to defy the doubters and their latest upset against the odds was last Saturday's home 1-1 with Manchester City when they made the visitors rue a series of missed chances by grabbing a late equaliser through Johann Berg Gudmundsson.

Sean Dyche's resilient side remain best of the rest outside the big six, sitting in seventh place on 36 points, although they are winless in nine amid a mounting injury list.

Midfielder Steven Defour is out for the season after knee surgery, while central defender James Tarkowski has missed the last two games, joining the likes of Robbie Brady, Jonathan Walters and Tom Heaton on the sidelines.

One piece of good news is that Stephen Ward could be ready to challenge Charlie Taylor for the left-back slot, while Matt Lowton will continue at right-back if Phil Bardsley is not fit after missing the second half against City.

January arrival Aaron Lennon is likely to keep his place after impressing on his first start against City, with loan signing George-Kevin N'Koudou awaiting his first start after three appearances off the bench.

Bold attacking play

Carvalhal has taken 11 points from his first six games as a Premier League manager, with the only defeat being the 2-0 against Tottenham in his first home match.

Other than that, Swansea have scored in every league game under the new manager, who has reinvigorated their outlook with bold attacking play.

That has been particularly evident at home, where their results since the Tottenham defeat have been 2-1 v Wolves in the FA Cup, league wins over Liverpool (1-0) and Arsenal (3-1) and the 8-1 against Notts County.

The FA Cup results may not count for so much, with so many second-string players involved on both sides, but Tuesday's win emphasised the new-found confidence at the Liberty Stadium and it is worth noting that Carvalhal's Premier League record of W3 D2 L1 is pretty good considering four of those six games have been against top-eight sides.

Burnley have been upsetting the odds ever since their 3-2 win at champions Chelsea on the opening day of the season and a key factor in their sustained form has been a solid away record of W4 D6 L3.

Dyche's side still don't win enough away games because they are low scoring, but you can almost guarantee their defending will be better than Arsenal's slipshod efforts in Swansea's last home league game.

Burnley's only away defeats came when they didn't manage to score and it is debatable whether Swansea are up to the job of shutting them out, having kept only one clean sheet in their six league games under Carvalhal.

Equally, however, Burnley have won only two away games out of nine when the opposition has scored and Swansea have proved hard to stop under Carvalhal.

With Carvalhal's outlook and their current form, Swansea are fancied to score and that will give them a good chance of taking something from the game, given Burnley's low win rate without a clean sheet (only two wins in 16 overall when conceding).

The draw is a big factor and the recommendation is Swansea on draw no bet at [1.74].

Low goals figures

Burnley have the joint-third meanest defence (23 goals conceded in 26 games) but are also joint-third for fewest goals scored (21), although Swansea are even worse as they are the joint-lowest scorers (19).

All that adds up to Burnley having a league-leading 20 out of 26 games with under 2.5 goals (77%) and Swansea not far behind with 16 (62%).

But most of Swansea's games were played under the more cautious Paul Clement and there are signs of a shift since Carvalhal took charge, with both teams scoring in four of his six league matches even if only two have gone over 2.5 goals.

Ref Watch

Andre Marriner generally takes charge of high-profile fixtures, with two-thirds of his Premier League matches this season involving at least one of the big six teams. His figures show no strong trend, although four of his six games not involving the big six have had no more than three yellow cards.

Opta Stat
Burnley are without a Premier League win in nine games (D5 L4), the longest current winless run in the division. The draw can be backed at [3.1].


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2017/18 P/L

Staked: 27 pts
Returned: 33.78 pts
P/L: +6.78 pts

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