Swansea v Bournemouth: Bright Cherries can keep struggling hosts in the gloom

Andrew Atherley
30 December 2016

Eddie Howe takes his Bournemouth side on their easiest trip for a while

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Bob Bradley has been sacked as Swansea boss, but Andrew Atherley sees no quick fix at the Liberty against Eddie Howe's relatively secure Bournemouth side...

"Since the start of last season the Cherries have lost only five out of 15 against bottom-six teams and all of those defeats came when they were shut out, which indicates a solid chance unless Swansea tighten up immediately."

Recommended Bet
Back Bournemouth off 0 on Asian Handicap at 1.910/11

Swansea v Bournemouth
Saturday 31 December, 15:00

Swansea

Bob Bradley apparently had two games to save his job but Monday's 4-1 drubbing at home to West Ham meant he was a goner after the first of them. The American lasted just 11 matches and Swansea - once a beacon of solidity and continuity - are embarking on their fourth managerial change in little more than a year.

Alan Curtis, the first-team coach who took the helm for six weeks after Garry Monk's departure last December, is back in temporary charge along with Paul Williams, the assistant manager.

Defender Federico Fernandez was back on the bench against West Ham after a broken toe and midfielder Ki Sung-yueng could return here after the same injury. Winger Jefferson Montero, who was carried off on Monday, is doubtful with a hamstring problem.

Bournemouth

As a little club in the big time through astute decision-making and a stable set-up, Bournemouth are in many ways what Swansea used to be. Eddie Howe is the second-longest-serving manager in the Premier League behind Arsene Wenger and has taken the Cherries to a fairly secure 12th place in their second season among the elite.

Howe has no serious injury concerns after Monday's 3-0 defeat at Chelsea, which was their third defeat in four matches since the amazing 4-3 comeback win over Liverpool in early December.

Match Odds

Curtis's record as Swansea caretaker last season was W2 D2 L3, which steadied the ship without being particularly impressive but was at least better than Bradley's record of W2 D2 L7 in his 11 games since October.

This is a reasonable starting point for Curtis - at home against a mid-table side - but he will need to find some improvement. Swansea's only wins this season have been against Burnley (14th), Crystal Palace (17th) and Sunderland (18th) and their record against teams placed any higher than that is W0 D3 L9.

The main source of hope is that, prior to the capitulation against West Ham, the Swans had produced some stirring displays at the Liberty to beat Palace 5-4 and Sunderland 3-0.

While Swansea rank 18th on home form, Bournemouth are only 15th in the away standings with a record of W1 D2 L6. The sole win came with their only clean sheet on the road, 1-0 at Stoke last month.

Keeping a clean sheet here is no given, but it is more positive for Bournemouth that they have taken something from three of the five away games in which they have scored (W1 D2 L2) and the two losses were against strong home sides Arsenal and Burnley. Swansea have kept only two clean sheets in nine home games, with a record of W1 D1 L5 when conceding.

Asian Handicap

This is the easiest away game Bournemouth have had for a while, as the last three were against Arsenal, Burnley and Chelsea (all of whom rank in the top six on home form) and there were several bright moments even on those tough trips.

Howe's side scored in two of those games and have a reasonable chance of taking something if they bring that level of performance to this match. Backing them off 0 on the Asian Handicap (the same as draw no bet) looks solid at 1.910/11.

Backing them outright for the win looks risky based on just one away victory this season, but they have a decent record against the strugglers. Since the start of last season the Cherries have lost only five out of 15 against bottom-six teams and three of those defeats came when they were shut out, which indicates a solid chance unless Swansea tighten up immediately.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Swansea rank joint-top overall for over 2.5 goals (13 out of 18) and at home they are second to Chelsea (seven out of nine). The two lower-scoring games at the Liberty came when the Swans failed to score themselves, so much depends on whether they score.

Bournemouth have conceded in eight of their nine away games, which tips the balance towards over 2.5 goals. Overall they tend towards higher scores (10 out of 18 over 2.5 goals) and the balance is the same home and away (both five out of nine over 2.5 goals).

The mitigating factor is that five of Bournemouth's eight games against bottom-half teams have had under 2.5 goals, including four out of five on the road.

Ref Watch

Kevin Friend tends towards the average among Premier League referees, although his highest figures this season came in his previous match at the Liberty when he issued nine yellow cards in Swansea's topsy-turvy 5-4 win over Palace. Five of his nine Premier League games have had 30-40 bookings points.

Recommended Bet

Back Bournemouth off 0 on Asian Handicap at 1.910/11

Opta Stat

The last six league games between these two sides has seen 27 goals scored (4.5 per game). Over 3.5 goals can be backed at 3.211/5