Swansea v Man City: Goals to flow again with Citizens in town

Sergio Aguero can help Man City rack up the goals again
Sergio Aguero can help Man City rack up the goals again

Dave Tindall is backing the net to bulge frequently when Manchester City take on Swansea in Saturday's Premier League showdown at the Liberty Stadium...

"The men in sky blue have kept just one clean sheet in their six domestic games so Swansea may be able to play their part in getting 3.5 over the line."

Back over 3.5 goals at 2.68/5

Swansea v Man City
Saturday, 15:00


Swansea

Taking four points from the opening five Premier League games and going out of the League Cup isn't quite the worst-case scenario Swansea fans would have come up with when asked how they'd start the season under Francesco Guidolin. But it's not far off.

Rumours about Ryan Giggs taking over if the 60-year-old Italian fails to buck his ideas up quickly are already swirling and Guidolin needs a second game against Man City in the space of four days like a hole in the head. Oh, just in case that wasn't enough, the next visitors to the Liberty Stadium are Liverpool.

With his training methods proving unpopular and performances poor, some are even suggesting Guidolin is a dead man walking.

That said, the Swans haven't exactly been shamed in front of their own fans since Hull scored a 2-0 victory in Matchweek 2.

They fought back from a goal down to take a point off Chelsea in their next home fixture and losing 2-1 to Pep Guardiola's men in midweek was hardly a disgrace even though their goal was a last-minute consolation.

But if there's a Swansea fan out there who genuinely believes their team can stop the Man City juggernaut on Saturday, they're faith is to be admired. Or possibly ridiculed.


Man City

WWWWWWWWW. Not a D in sight, never mind an L. Expectations were high but Man City's 100% start under Pep has surely surpassed them.

They hinted at possible teething problems when huffing and puffing a little in the opening-day clash with Sunderland but since Patrick McNair turned the ball into his own net to gift them victory, the Citizens haven't looked back.

On the road they've thumped Steaua 5-0, cruised past Stoke 4-1, looked scintillating in large spells in the 2-1 derby win against Man Utd and set up another clash against their neighbours in round four of the League Cup after easing to victory against this same Swansea side in the third round on Wednesday night.

It's probably forgotten that Man City won their opening five Premier League games last season but there seems something very different this time. Scoring 27 goals at three per game tends to fuel such feelings.


Match Odds

Man City are just 1.42/5 to make it a perfect 10 and take Guardiola's winning start into double figures. Swansea are big outsiders at 9.417/2 while the draw trades at 5.49/2.

It can be tricky for a punter when two sides meet again so soon although the line-ups will be very, very different at the weekend.

The pair made 17 changes between them for Wednesday's encounter and here we'll revert to a match-up of the first-teamers.

Look away Swansea fans now as, for Man City, that means the return of Sergio Aguero after he served the final game of his domestic ban.

As for recent head-to-heads, Man City have won nine, drawn two and lost just one of their last 12 encounters with Swansea. They've netted 15 goals in the last six. The Welsh side's only victory in that period came via a 1-0 win at the Liberty Stadium in March 2012.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Eight of Man City's nine games this season have featured over 2.5 goals. The exact tallies in those matches reads 3, 5, 5, 1, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3 so more than half have seen over 3.5 goals.

Risking the extra goal could be worth it here, with the price bumped up nearly a point from 1.664/6 for over 2.5 to 2.68/5 for over 3.5.

The men in sky blue have kept just one clean sheet in their six domestic games so Swansea may be able to play their part in getting 3.5 over the line. The goal count for Guidolin's side in their last five games is 4, 3, 4, 1, 3.

Finally, over 3.5 would have landed in this fixture twice in the last three seasons with Man City winning 4-2 at the Liberty in May 2015 and 3-2 there in January 2014.


To Score

It's hard not to turn your nose up when seeing a striker quoted at a short odds-on price to score unless their name is Messi, Ronaldo or Suarez. But with two hat-tricks already and nine goals in just five games this season, Sergio Aguero is putting up the sort of numbers we associate with that celebrated trio.

He's 1.758/11 to bang in another at the Swans.

Kelechi Iheanacho scored in both games against Swansea last year but will be sub if Aguero plays.

Kevin de Bruyne and a rejuvenated-looking Raheem Sterling are both available to back at 2.47/5 but that seems short enough.


Ref watch

Neil Swarbrick has shown 17 yellows and no reds in his five matches so far this season.

Just two of those were Premier League fixtures, the Lancashire official flashing four yellows in West Brom v Everton and three in Middlesbrough v Crystal Palace.

There's not much to go with these two teams. He didn't take charge of any Man City game season while he was the mad in the middle for four Swansea matches, but none at the Liberty Stadium.

Man City fans may remember him as the ref who dismissed the wrong man (Gareth McAuley instead of Craig Dawson) after just two minutes of their 3-0 win over Sunderland in March 2015!


Recommended Bets

Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.68/5


Opta Stat

Man City have scored 2+ goals in each of their opening five Premier League games this season; a run only six teams can better from the start of a campaign (6 - Newcastle 94-95, Arsenal 04-05, Chelsea 09-10, and Man United 10-11, 7 - Chelsea 97-98 and 12 - Man City 11-12).


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For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.


Dave Tindall's Premier League P/L, 2016/17

Staked: 6pts
Returned: 10.14 pts
P/L: + 4.14 pts

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