Sunderland v Newcastle: Toon Army to have derby misery ended

John Carver will have his players fired up
John Carver will have his players fired up
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It's the Tyne-Wear derby this weekend and Paul Robinson thinks that Newcastle will break their recent hoodoo in this fixture and leave Sunderland in grave danger.

"In their last three outings at The Stadium of Light they have failed to even score a goal, and when you consider the opposition, that is quite simply a disgrace."

Back Newcastle @ 3.1511/5

Sunderland v Newcastle
Sunday April 5, 16:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports 1

This has to be one of the fiercest rivalries in British football and there certainly won't be any quarter asked or taken on Sunday afternoon.

The hosts have won the last four meetings between the pair to an aggregate scoreline of 9-1 and you have to go back to 2011 since Newcastle's last win.

The Black Cats are in the midst of a huge slump that has left them one place above the relegation zone and if Burnley can pull off an against the odds win over Spurs in the early kick off, they will start the match in 18th place.

Gus Poyet bit the dust after the shambolic 4-0 battering on this ground at the hands of goal-shy, Aston Villa, and new man, Dick Advocaat is already '0 for 1' after his team were beaten by a West Ham side who hadn't taken three points since the middle of January.

Newcastle aren't exactly firing themselves as they come into this fixture on the back of three straight defeats. They did come against Manchester United, Everton and Arsenal though and prior to that, they edged out Villa 1-0 at St James' Park.

Many see manager, John Carver, as a placeholder until the summer and while that may be true, if there's one match that he can get a performance out of his players in, it surely has to be this one. Carver has black and white striped blood flowing through his veins and I have no doubt that his much maligned players will play with passion and aggression for the full 90 minutes.


Match Odds
Sunderland 2.6213/8 Newcastle 3.1511/5 The Draw 3.259/4

Sunderland have been priced up as the favourites and I understand why. Their head-to-head record, home advantage and greater need for the points is clear to see, but the fact remains that they've won four times this term, with only two coming in front of their own fans.

In their last three outings at The Stadium of Light they have failed to even score a goal, and when you consider the opposition, that is quite simply a disgrace. QPR, West Brom and Aston Villa are among the worst teams in the division, and they all managed a clean sheet at Sunderland.

Newcastle's away record isn't exactly stellar - played 15, won three, drawn four and lost eight, but they can be very Jekyll and Hyde, and on their day, they can give most teams a game.

The value has to be the away win here, as at over 2/1, the Magpies are overpriced given the opposition.


Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.3611/8 Under 2.5 Goals 1.728/11

This is quite a straightforward pick for me as, despite it being the clear favourite of the two, under 2.5 goals is surely in with a great shout.

Sunderland are the league's lowest scorers with 23 in the 'For' Column and while Newcastle have 10 more to their name, only 13 of their 33 came on the road.

Exactly two thirds of Sunderland's matches this term have gone under 2.5 with 15 of Newcastle's 30 following suit.


Sending Off?

It's currently 3.711/4 for referee, Mike Dean, to dismiss a player on Sunday and I can't leave that un-backed. There hasn't been a red in this fixture since Cheick Tiote got his marching orders in a meeting on this ground in October 2012, but in the four games prior to that, there were four sending offs.

The intensity will be off the charts given what's on the line, and if the game goes how I think it will, the Sunderland fans will turn on the players and that could lead to 'frustrated' tackles.


Cash Out

Given Sunderland's goal-shyness, I think a 0-1 correct score could trade much shorter in-running. It's currently available to back at around the 9.89/1 mark, and if Newcastle can take the lead, they have an excellent chance of keeping a clean sheet and taking the three points.


Recommended Bets
Back Newcastle @ 3.1511/5
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.728/11
Back a Sending Off @ 3.711/4

Best Cash Out
Back a 0-1 Correct Score @ 9.89/1

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