The Big Match Tactical View: Sunderland v Manchester City

Michael Cox
04 March 2017

Pep Guardiola's Manchester City start as strong favourites

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Manchester City have a poor recent record in this fixture, but start as strong favourites. Michael Cox looks at the tactics, Alan Thompson assesses the betting...

"Manchester City will unquestionably dominate possession at the Stadium of Light"

Sunderland v Manchester City
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Sunderland 12.011/1, Manchester City 1.330/100, The Draw 6.411/2.

Manchester City have often struggled away at Sunderland - they managed to lose 1-0 at the Stadium of Light four consecutive times between 2010 and 2013.

Their last two visits have ended in victories, however, and against a poor Sunderland side decimated by injuries, Pep Guardiola's team should encounter few problems here.

David Moyes is sweating on the fitness of both his goalkeepers, with Jordan Pickford and Vito Mannone both considered doubtful. Pickford appears more likely to start, and the goalkeeper has rescued Sunderland many times this season - but he may be short of match fitness.

Papy Djilobodji should be fit to return to the defence, but Billy Jones, Jason Denayer and Jan Kirchhoff are all considered doubtful. It's difficult to work out precisely how Moyes will format his defence, and it's also uncertain whether he'll play a three-man defence or a back four.

The 3-5-1-1 seems more likely, however, and Moyes will seek to pack midfield in order to compete against Manchester City. Didier N'Dong, Sebastian Larsson and Darron Gibson seems a likely trio. They're hardly the most mobile players around, however, and it's difficult to imagine they'll have much chance stopping David Silva and Kevin De Bruyne from creating a succession of chances for Sergio Aguero.

Wing-backs Bryan Oviedo and Adnan Januzaj are likely to be pinned back by Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane - and it wouldn't be surprised if Januzaj made way for a more defensive option like Jones, although he's yet another currently considered doubtful.

Ultimately Sunderland will play almost exclusively on the break. Fabio Borini will buzz around and work the channels, while Jermain Defoe is likely to lead the line solo for long periods. Both offer pace, which could cause City's high defensive line problems, but it will be a surprise if Sunderland create more than a couple of decent chances.

Aside from long-term absencs Gabriel Jesus and Ilkay Gunodgan, Guardiola only has one major problem - Aleksandar Kolarov might be ruled out. That's unlikely to affect his plans significantly, howveer. Bacary Sagna and Gael Clichy will play at full-back, with John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi at centre-back. Expect City's back four to push up and compress the play, squeezing Sunderland back into their own half.

Fernandinho will play a crucial role in midfield, playing the holding role and allowing the four attacking midfielders to scamper forward to support Aguero, and Sunderland must look to give him something to think about in a defensive sense - Fernandinho can find himself outnumbered at defensive transitions, and City's defenders have a habit of wandering forward to close down opponents too quickly.

Vincent Kompany is available, but it's not entirely clear whether Guardiola rates City's club captain, and he may be forced to watch from the bench.

Ultimately it's difficult to see how Sunderland can survive here. City's attacking line-up looks absolutely rampant, and against a defence that has conceded six goals in their last two outings, City could rack up a heavy victory. Sunderland leave too many spaces between their defenders, and City are excellent at exploiting those gaps.

I'm backing a heavy away win. "Another Other Away Win" in "Correct Score" covers City scoring four goals or more, and I think there's a very decent possibility of that, so 4.03/1 is very tempting indeed.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Man City have lost three times on the road this season and on each occasion thy have failed to score, Spurs (2-0), Liverpool (1-0) & Everton (4-0). They are yet to draw away from home and in every other away game they have scored at least twice. I just can’t see how Sunderland can keep them out and with Sunderland only scoring four times in their last six at the Stadium of Light it’s hard to see how they can get anything out of this game.

The one thing in Sunderland’s favour is we are now in March and the Black Cats have only lost two of their last 10 home games played after 15th March 2015. Their sudden change of fortune normally coincides with the defeat of their local rivals Newcastle United but they don’t have that trigger this year so it will be interesting to see if they can scramble clear again this season.

The Citizens travel to Sunderland in excellent spirits, they are still in the hunt for the title (albeit a long way off) and are progressing nicely in both domestic and European cup competitions. With back-to-back wins on the road they will be highly motivated to win at least the race for second place.

While I don’t think there is any value in the Asian Handicap market, City -1.75 at 2.01/1 or the Man City win to nil at 2.35/4, or even Man City/Man City in the Half Time/Full Time at 1.910/11, I wouldn’t put anyone off doing any of those bets, but I will be taking a chance on a couple of Correct Scores, splitting my stake on Man City to win 2-0 at 8.415/2 and Man City to win 3-1 at 13.012/1.