Stoke v Crystal Palace: Visitors can complete great escape and send hosts down

Andrew Atherley
04 May 2018

This weekend could mark the end for Paul Lambert's Stoke in the Premier League

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Andrew Atherley says Palace are the most likely winners in a match that is do or die for Stoke...

"Since Hodgson steadied the ship, Palace have gone 10 games unbeaten against the bottom six and on form it is hard to see them being beaten here."

Recommended Bet
Back C Palace at 21/1 on draw no bet

Stoke v C Palace
Saturday 5 May, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports

Time fast running out

Stoke need at least four points from their last two matches to escape the drop and they will be relegated if they fail to take anything from this match.

A win would be much more preferable and that might leave them in the drop zone only on goal difference by the end of the day, although even three points could fail to move them out of 19th place.

The extreme peril of their position is reflected in relegation odds of just 1.121/8.

Bruno Martins Indi is set to miss the match after going off with a groin injury in last week's goalless draw at Liverpool. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting is likely to be absent again, although Glen Johnson could return.

Palace in a safer place

Palace are probably safe after last week's thumping 5-0 home win over Leicester, which moved them to 11th place on 38 points, six points clear of the relegation zone. That is a remarkable achievement considering their dreadful start to the season.

It would take an unlikely set of results to send them down now, but it is not beyond the realms of possibility with West Ham, Huddersfield, Swansea and Southampton all holding a game in hand.

Palace could name an unchanged line-up, although Connor Wickham is targeting a return from a groin injury.

Visitors look hard to beat

Stoke have needed a win for a while and it hasn't arrived, which makes it hard to expect them to find the right formula just because their situation is now so desperate.

They have won just six matches out of 36 and their only victory in 13 matches under Paul Lambert came in their first match for the current manager, a 2-0 home win over fellow strugglers Huddersfield on January 20. Even West Brom are outperforming them now.

Stoke have been in a winning position several times since but have thrown away nine points in those circumstances. One issue is that their low scoring rate stops them from pressing home their advantage - they have not scored more than once since that Huddersfield win.

The last five visitors to Stoke have scored and it is hard to see Lambert's men stopping Palace's in-form attack.

Roy Hodgson's side have scored in 14 of their last 16 matches in all competitions and arguably are more potent on the road, having scored in 10 of their last 11 away games stretching back to pre-Christmas.

Palace's problems stemmed from their opening run of seven defeats, which included home losses to Huddersfield, Swansea and Southampton. Since Hodgson steadied the ship, Palace have gone 10 games unbeaten against the bottom six and on form it is hard to see them being beaten here.

There must be a good chance of an away win, which would send Stoke down, but the best bet is Palace at 21/1 on draw no bet, which looks cracking good value.

Stoke lacking goals

Over 2.5 goals is slight favourite at 1.910/11, probably because of a view that desperation will equal goals.

Nine of Stoke's 13 games under Lambert have had under 2.5 goals, with two of the four exceptions coming against top-six sides, and that reflects their main tactic of trying to keep matches tight in the hope of nicking a win or at least a point.

That approach has not taken them to safety and it is a question of whether they have more to offer now that they need to win. Their desperate situation might drive the goals higher, but only if they actually have the skills to score.

Palace, by contrast, have opened up in recent weeks, with six of their last eight matches going over 2.5 goals. Their attack is certainly the more potent, but a contribution might still be needed from Stoke to take the goals over 2.5.

Ref Watch

Martin Atkinson has taken charge of 26 Premier League matches this season (joint second-highest) and his card count is on the high side, with five reds issued and at least four yellows on 11 other occasions.

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