Southampton v Crystal Palace
Sunday May 15, 15:00 BST
It's been another impressive year for The Saints as they are guaranteed another top eight finish and could even go as high as fifth if results go their way. They are finishing the season in impressive fashion as Ronald Koeman's side have won six of their last eight - including their three most recent outings.
The goals have been flowing again for the South Coast outfit and they managed to net twice against a good Tottenham defence at White Hart Lane on Sunday. Prior to that it was four against Man City and another four at Villa Park, and I am sure that their attacking players will be looking forward to finishing the campaign in style.
Results have been great at St Mary's for a while now and it all started with a 4-0 thrashing of Arsenal on Boxing Day. The only slight hiccups since then were a 2-1 defeat to Chelsea and a 1-1 draw with Sunderland, as the other six fixtures ended in victory.
It's been a strange old year for the visitors as after starting in impressive form, from the middle of December they went on a run of 14 league games without a win - nine of which were defeats. That left them in danger of being sucked into a relegation battle, but a win over Norwich in April proved vital and they pulled clear thanks to further points picked up against Everton and Arsenal.
While their league form suffered, Alan Pardew's men were embarking on an FA Cup run that has taken them all the way to the final next weekend. It's only natural that their minds will be on that given that this is somewhat of meaningless fixture in the grand scheme of things.
The manager is expected to rest a few key players ahead of Wembley, but that will again give the likes of Dwight Gayle an opportunity to perform and stake their claim for a starting berth against Manchester United.
Southampton 1.351/3 Crystal Palace 10.519/2 The Draw 5.95/1
It's only natural for the hosts to be the red-hot favourites given the form and motivation of the two clubs, coupled with home advantage. I have no interest in getting involved in backing them at those kind of odds though and history has proven that we can get some surprise scorelines on the final day of the season.
That is why I think that Palace could be worth a small investment at such a big price, possibly with a view to cash out for a nice profit. They would never normally be 10.519/2 for a trip to St Mary's and it's possible that the layers have overestimated the possible effects of the FA Cup final a week later.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.715/7 Under 2.5 Goals 2.3211/8
An odds-on favourite that I am keen on is over 2.5 goals at around the 1.715/7 mark. I have always been a big believer in there being more goals on the last day of the season compared to the average week and this seems like a game where they will flow.
Southampton have been rampant in front of goal of late as they have racked up 10 in their last three on this ground and six of their last nine here have gone over 2.5.
It's interesting to note though that of the six to go over 2.5, four of them went over 3.5 and that seems like a tastier proposition at 2.77/4. It's also worth considering that Palace have had four of their last eight on the road finish with four or more scored.
I would also definitely be interested in backing both teams to score at above even money. For all Southampton's impressive run of form, they haven't been keeping clean sheets - in fact, their opponents have found the net in each of their last 11 fixtures, including their last five in front of their own fans.
Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.77/4
Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.111/10
Best Cash Out
Back Crystal Palace @ 10.519/2
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