Southampton v Watford: Saints' negativity should mean few goals

Javi Gracia.
Javi Gracia has led Watford to an outstanding start to the campaign.
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This may be a match low on goals so bet accordingly but if we're going to have a first goalscorer, there's an outstanding candidate at a very decent price, says Jamie Pacheco.

"I’d rather go with ‘no’ on both teams to score. The hosts have managed just three goals at home in five, their last match here ended 0-0 and with such a lack of ideas in attack, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hughes isn’t eyeing up another 0-0 home, a result he’d consider just fine given where Watford are in the table."

Southampton v Watford
Saturday November 10, 15:00

Saints still a great price for the drop

At the risk of sounding like a broken record every time I preview a Southampton game: I still think they're going down. More importantly, I think they're a great price to go down at [6.4].

Cardiff and Fulham are the teams most likely to join them in being relegated but Huddersfield seem to have more heart, desire and look better organised. The problem I have with this Southampton side is that I can't work out what they're trying to do.

At least we know Huddersfield are trying to be a side that's hard to break down, whereas fellow relegation-contenders Burnley are physical and dangerous from set-pieces and Newcastle have a couple of possible game-changers in their side and rely on clever tactics from Rafa Benitez to try to out-think their opponents. Southampton's gameplan and strengths? Answers on a postcard, please.

At least Mark Hughes has a full squad of players to choose from with no injuries or suspensions.

Watford's best-ever start

This is Watford's best-ever start to a top-flight campaign, Opta tell us, with six wins and 19 points from 11 games. Not many people will have seen that coming.

Not only did they finish last season poorly but they also sold their most dangerous player in Richarlison without any real quality players coming through the door to make up for the Brazilian's sale.

But they thoroughly deserve to be where they are. Their defence has been considerably better and they have several players who are capable of getting goals with nine different players having already scored at least once. They do have a few absences to contend with, though. Etienne Capoue is suspended, Sebastian Prodl is injured while Daryl Janmaat and skipper Troy Deeney are doubtful with knocks.

Highly unlikely the hosts will win this

If you were to accept stats as the be-all-and-end-all, you'd think all Southampton have to do is show up to win this match. The Saints have lost just one match against Watford in their last 10 in all competitions and their manager Mark Hughes clearly has Watford's number, having beaten them in each of the last four times he was up against them, though admittedly as manager of Stoke, rather than the Saints.

These trends can be the only reason why the hosts are just 6/4 to win the match. After all, Watford are a full 12 points better off than them and the hosts are yet to win at home this season in five attempts; they haven't won home or away in seven.

So that quote on Hughes' men is of no interest to us. Rather, if you're looking to play the outcome of the match, consider Watford/Draw on the Double Chance market at 1/2 or Watford on the Draw/No Bet market at 23/20.

The smart way to play the goals markets

Watford have been a bit Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde when it comes to goals. Lots of them in home matches where five out of six have ended over 2.5 goals (which is 6/5 here) and not many on the road, with just one game out of five having three or more goals. For the Saints it's three from five home games that have gone 'overs'. Unders is 4/6.

I'd rather go with 'no' on both teams to score. The hosts have managed just three goals at home in five, their last match here ended 0-0 and with such a lack of ideas in attack, I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes isn't eyeing up another 0-0 home, a result he'd consider just fine given where Watford are in the Premier League table.

Then again, Watford could nick this. We've already mentioned they have several sources for a goal. Playing 'no' on both teams to score at 9/10 certainly includes lots of credible outcomes in your favour.

Former Juve man a great price for first goal honours

Of course, just because we're gambling on at least one team not scoring doesn't mean there won't be any goals at all. Nor does it mean that we can't also cash in on the possibility of the sole goal in the game being scored by a Watford player. And not just any player.

Roberto Pereyra missed a hell of a lot of football last season through injuries. His 1610 minutes on the pitch last campaign is less than half of the maximum allowance. But he's made up for that already this season with five goals. He's a class act, a former Juventus player no less, and looks an interesting price at 9/1 to be first goalscorer. By way of explanation, it makes more sense to play this market rather than the anytime scorer one if your preference is for few goals in the game.

Same-Game Multi-Bets

If you want to chance your arm at a same-game multi-bet just put any two selections from under that tab together and the Sportsbook will work out the odds for you.

Taking Draw/Watford on the Double Chance market and Under 2.5 Goals comes to 2.34.


Jamie's Premier League P and L 2018/19

Points Staked: 17.5
Points Returned: 24.51 pts
P/L: +7.01 points

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