Southampton v Tottenham: Saints can take advantage of leaky Spurs

Jose Mourinho.
Will Tottenham's poor defensive record continue when they travel to Southampton?

Tottenham cannot stop conceding and Dan Fitch is backing a Southampton team in fine form to take advantage...

"Over 2.5 goals has paid out in nine of the ten games under Mourinho."

Back over 2.5 goals between Southampton and Tottenham at 1.738/11

Southampton 3.55/2 v Tottenham 2.26/5; The Draw 3.814/5
Wednesday 1 January, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Saints enter the new year in high spirits

Southampton come into the final Premier League match of the festive season on the back of a decent run of form.

Unbeaten in their last three (W2 D1), Southampton recently beat fourth placed Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and going a little further back, they have only lost two of their last eight (W4 D2 L2). It's a decent achievement as the Saints went into the winter months in terrible form, of which the low point was that unforgettable 9-0 home defeat to Leicester.

At that stage it looked like Southampton could be on their way down, with Ralph Hasenhuttl understandably under pressure. He's done well to turn the situation around, with the form of his striker Danny Ings being key to the revival.

Compared to many of his rival managers, Hasenhuttl is benefitting from having relatively few injuries at such a busy time of year. Only Valery Yann and Shane Long are currently out.

Mourinho elects on surprising strategy

An unpredictable aspect of Tottenham's form since Jose Mourinho took charge of the club is that he has done little to improve their problems in defence.

Normally Mourinho's pragmatism sees his teams playing cautiously, but on this occasion he has assessed the merits of the Spurs squad and come to the conclusion that the best form of defence is attack. It seems the right call, with Tottenham currently lacking sufficient quality at right-back and a mobile defensive midfielder.

The 2-2 draw with Norwich at the weekend ensured that only one clean sheet has been kept in Mourinho's ten games. A total of 17 goals have been shipped and it will be interesting to see if the club look to solve their obvious problems in the January transfer market, or instead try to muddle through until the summer.

Mourinho's defensive options are currently limited by injuries to his goalkeeper Hugo Lloris and left-back Ben Davies. Joining them on the sidelines through suspension is the forward Heung-Min Son.

Southampton the value in match result market

Tottenham are the 2.186/5 favourites, with Southampton at 3.55/2 and the draw at 3.814/5.

It's a tough match to predict. Spurs are more talented team, but fragile and Southampton are in the type of form to suggest that they could take advantage. Their price is big enough that you can back them to simply avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at odds of 1.824/5.

Goals will flow

Both teams to score is slim at 1.625/8, but seems certain to land. A little more generous is the 1.738/11 for over 2.5 goals, which has paid out in nine of the 10 games under Mourinho.

If you were looking to back a Tottenham victory, the way to go would be to combine it with both teams to score at 3.9. Of the six wins such Mourinho took charge, they have conceded in five of them.

Spoilt for goalscorer choices

danny-ings-southampton-1280.jpg

There will be in-form forwards on display for both teams. Ings has scored 12 goals this season, which includes one against Spurs in the reverse fixture. He's 2.47/5 to score and his last eight starts have seen him return eight goals.

Harry Kane has scored in his last two games and is 2.26/5 to extend that run. Dele Alli, who has benefited from returning to the number 10 role, is available at 3.814/5.

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