There's plenty of evidence to suggest Saints are far too short to beat a side on the same points and we have to oppose the hosts, says Jamie Pacheco.
"Southampton are 2.186/5 and it’s not easy to justify that price. Instead, we’ll explain why it’s a price worth taking on."
Southampton v Burnley
Sunday April 4, 12:00
Saints eye up 40-point mark
It's a good thing Southampton started the season well because results of late have been pretty poor.
Opta tell us that after a win against Liverpool at the start of the year, they've lost 10 out of their last 12 in the league. That means they've picked up fewer points than anyone else this calendar year.
It's not so easy to pinpoint what's gone wrong. Yes, Oriel Romeu has been absent for the last four games with injury but that's only one player and they were losing plenty of games even before he got injured.
As simple as it sounds, they just need to make sure they get another seven points from their final nine matches, get to that 40-point mark just to be sure, and then worry about what went wrong this season.
They certainly can't afford to lose key duo James Ward-Prowse or Danny Ings in the summer. These two know the club well, are extremely consistent and are two of the few players who have that little bit of magic in them.
Pope integral to Burnley
Burnley are on the same 33 points as the Saints are after the same number of games (29).
Yet somehow one feels that they have less to worry about. You'd think that in their remaining four home matches, they'll keep a couple of clean sheets, win at least one of them and pick up a few draws here or there to get to safety themselves.
But they'll need to get their defence in order for that to happen. They've conceded a goal in each of their last three matches, two of them at home, and given they don't score many, they'll need to start finding a few more clean sheets.
They've certainly got the right man in goal for that. Nick Pope remarkably kept clean sheets in each of his first six England appearances, a record. That may well have been seven had John Stones not made a horrid error against Poland which Pope could do nothing about. There should be a few offers for the superb keeper over the summer.
Southampton are 2.186/5 and it's not easy to justify that price. Instead, we'll explain why it's a price worth taking on.
We've already mentioned they're tied on points in the league and that no side has been poorer in 2021 in terms of results than the hosts.
Add the fact that Southampton are 'ranked' second-worst in terms of goals conceded and that the Saints have had real trouble scoring against the Clarets - just four in their last eight in the top-flight - and you can see why we're keen on taking on Ward-Prowse and co at just a shade of odds-against.
Sometimes in betting you need to take a bit of a leap of faith. Well, as long as there's some evidence to back up the fact that you're placing a good bet.
The corners match bet is a case in point. It's 1/3 the hosts, 15/2 the tie and 3/1 that the visitors get the most corners. Go with the latter.
The Saints have won the corners battle in just 43% of their home matches this season so for that reason alone, they should probably be odds-against, as opposed to a shockingly short 1/3.
Of course, Burnley don't have a great record at getting more corners away from home: they've won it just 21.5% of the time on the road this season. But that's the leap of faith you're taking and at least it's at a big price.
A further rug of comfort is that in the last six between these two, it's been three-a-piece in terms of corners match bets won.
Given we think Burnley are being a bit under-rated in general and it follows they we think they're being under-rated in this particular market, too.
Both teams have scored in each of Burnley's last three games and in two of Southampton's last three. Small sample but it paints a good picture when it comes to how both sides have struggled for clean sheets. It's 9/10 on the BTTS option.
In what is a big match with invaluable points at stake, don't dismiss a few bookings for tactical fouls or time-wasting. In fact, we only need three. It's 5/6 we get over 20 bookings points and that looks decent.
The double comes to 3.47.
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JAMIE'S PREMIER LEAGUE P/L 20/21