Southampton v Aston Villa: Saints could be shamed by Villains

Aston Villa manager Dean Smith.
Will Dean Smith have the answers when Aston Villa visit Southampton?

Southampton host an Aston Villa side desperate for points and Dan Fitch thinks that the visitors will go home happy.

"Southampton have only won three of their 13 Premier League home games this season (D2 L8)."

Back Aston Villa double chance at 2.3811/8

Southampton 1.664/6 v Aston Villa 5.79/2; The Draw 4.47/2
Saturday 22 February, 15:00

Saints struggling at home

Southampton are in danger of getting sucked back into the relegation fight, should they not be able to reverse their current slump in form.

The Saints are without a win in their last four outings (D1 L3). This includes their last two Premier League games, which have both ended in defeat, with Burnley beating them 2-1 at St Mary's last weekend.

Southampton have a seven point cushion between themselves and the relegation zone, but their home form is a major worry. While most of the teams fighting against the drop will expect to pick up most of their future points at home, Southampton are a much more effective side when on the road. They have only won three of their 13 Premier League home games this season (D2 L8).

Sofiane Boufal is a doubt after picking up an injury against Burnley. He could join Nathan Redmond on the sidelines, with the forward currently out with a muscle problem.

Villa can't let Engels error leave marks

Aston Villa also tasted defeat last weekend and the manner of the loss has the potential to do real damage to their confidence.

Dean Smith's side looked to be heading for a creditable draw with Spurs on Sunday, before a terrible error by Bjorn Engels in injury time gifted Heung-Min Son an opportunity to score what would prove to be the winner, in a 3-2 loss for Villa.

It was a cruel way for Aston Villa to lose a match in which they were largely impressive. They created a number of chances against Tottenham and you would hope that they can take the positives from their performance. Currently just outside the relegation zone in 17th place, Villa are only a point ahead of West Ham and Watford.

Tyrone Mings missed the match with Spurs with tonsillitis. Definitely out are Tom Heaton, Jed Steer, John McGinn, Keinan Davis and Wesley.

Value lies with visitors

Southampton are the favourites at 1.664/6, with the draw at 4.47/2 and Aston Villa at 5.79/2.

That's an awfully short price for Southampton given their poor home record. Villa have been performing better on the road of late, losing only two of their last five away games (W1 D2).

You can back Aston Villa to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at 2.3811/8. If you think they can follow eight other teams in winning at St Mary's, consider the 4.1 available for them in the Draw No Bet market, with the draw also worth considering at 4.47/2.

Goals look a certainty

Both teams to score looks certain to land at 1.75/7. It's occurred in each of Aston Villa's last nine matches, while Southampton have only kept one clean sheet at home in the Premier League this season.

Over 1.5 first-half goals has paid out in each of Southampton's last two matches and the same is true of Aston Villa. You can back for there to be two goals or more in the first-half at 2.56/4.

Ings the man in form

When it comes to who is likely to score the goals, the obvious favourite is the in-form Danny Ings. He notched his 18th goal of the season in the defeat to Burnley and can be backed at 1.84/5 to add to his tally and at 4.03/1 to score the first goal.

For Villa, their new striker Mbwana Samatta has impressed since signing from Genk and is 3.711/4 to score. How reliable a scorer Samatta will prove to be is still up for debate, but at the very least he looks like someone that the likes of Grealish and El Ghazi can play off. Grealish is 4.57/2 to find the net, with El Ghazi at 5.24/1.

Dan Fitch 2019/20 Season P/L

Staked: 502.00 pts
Returned: 496.91 pts
P/L: -5.09 pts

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