Saturday Premier League 3pm Tips: Home wins and entertainment on the cards

Mike Norman
19 September 2019

Marco Silva's men have won six home league games on the bounce

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With just three Premier League fixtures kicking-off at the tradition time of 3pm on Saturday Mike Norman has no option but to put up bets at Burnley, Everton and Man City...

"Stretching back to last season the Toffees have now won six Premier League home games on the bounce, and in that sequence they've defeated Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United without conceding a single goal and by an aggregate scoreline of 7-0."

Back Everton -1 to Win v Sheff Utd @ 3.02/1

Astute Dyche will know how to beat the Canaries

Burnley 2.0621/20 v Norwich 3.814/5; Draw 3.8514/5

Burnley v Norwich Odds.png

Norwich will be on a massive high after last week's shock 3-2 win over Premier League champions Manchester City. They were tremendous in that game, just like they were when they thrashed Newcastle 3-0 and like they were in parts at home to Chelsea.

But there lies the problem. All three of the Canaries' good performances this season have came at Carrow Road. Backed by a fantastic home support they've scored an average of nearly three goals per game in front of their own fans. Away from home they've scored just one in two games and conceded an average of exactly three goals per game.

Daniel Farke's men deserve massive credit for the way they are taking the game to their opponents and not being scared to give it a go, but so far it hasn't worked on the road. Liverpool could have scored six or seven at home to the Canaries, West Ham should have scored six or seven.

I have no doubt that everything will fall right for Farke's men on the road against one or two Premier League sides this term but I'd be very surprised if they scored enough goals to get the better of Burnley on Saturday.

The Clarets swept aside Southampton on the first weekend of the season and have recorded two creditable draws on the road to Wolves and Brighton. Defeats to Arsenal and Liverpool were to be expected so it's fair to say that Sean Dyche's men are about on par with how they'd have expected to start the new campaign.

Purely based on Norwich's away form to date, and the nous of Burnley boss Dyche, I expect a home win in this encounter. Don't expect a typical Clarets '1-0' however. If Norwich approach the game in the same way they have all league games so far this term then goals are extremely likely. A home win with at least three goals in the game is the call.

Strong home form points to comfortable Toffees win

Everton 1.684/6 v Sheff Utd 6.25/1; Draw 4.03/1

Similar to Norwich this term, Everton have been great on home soil but pretty woeful on the road. The Toffees have taken maximum points at Goodison Park, scoring four goals in two games, but away from home they've lost to Aston Villa and Bournemouth while only managing a draw with Crystal Palace.

When you see the quality in Everton's squad it's difficult to put a finger on why they are so inconsistent, but then again we're only five games into the new campaign and there's still plenty of time for Marco Silva's men to improve their away performances.

Sheffield United are gaining many plaudits for the start they've made to life back in the Premier League but the fact remains they've won just once in five games, and that was at home to Crystal Palace. And we all witnessed last Saturday how bad the Eagles really are.

To be fair Chris Wilder's men have drawn their two away games, at Bournemouth and at Chelsea, but I really do expect them to struggle this term, especially on the road, and Everton really ought to be too strong for them on Saturday.

Stretching back to last season the Toffees have now won six Premier League home games on the bounce, and in that sequence they've defeated Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United without conceding a single goal and by an aggregate scoreline of 7-0. On that form alone they look a cracking bet to cover the -1 goal handicap against the Blades on Saturday.

Defensive problems to aid a big-scoring win

Man City 1.121/8 v Watford 30.029/1; Draw 12.5

City Watford.png

Manchester City seem to hammer most of the lesser lights in the Premier League but it's noticeable how often they keep thrashing certain teams. Nine straight wins against Bournemouth for examples, scoring 28 goals. And eight straight wins against West Ham, also scoring 28 goals in the process.

Against Watford the Citizens have won 11 straight games, scoring a remarkable 38 goals in those victories. That's an average of almost 3.5 goals per win, but in the last six meetings with the Hornets Pep Guardiola's men have hit the back of the net 25 times, an average of over four goals per game.

Instantly then we have to give serious consideration to the 2.47/5 about Any Other Home Win in the Correct Score market. That means Man City need to win the game by scoring at least four goals, something they've done in three of their last six meetings against Saturday's opponents.

It's almost a no-brainer of a bet on the stats alone, but consider how poor Watford are at present - they are nine Premier League games without a win and sit rock bottom of the table - and the fact that already this term Man City have scored 15 goals in their four victories then the bet really appeals.

Adding even more confidence is Man City's defensive worries of late. Guardiola's men might be stretched at the back in terms of personnel, but City conceding a goal or two against Watford surely enhances the chances of them scoring at least four themselves. One thing we know about this Man City team is that they more often than not outscore teams, regardless of how many their opponents score.

For more tips on the Premier League, check out this week's episode of Football...Only Bettor, with Betfair columnists Kevin Hatchard, Mark O'Haire and Jake Osgathorpe joining host Caroline Barker to preview all the weekend action

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You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Mike's 2019/20 Season P/L:

Staked: 20 pts
Returned: 2.32 pts
P/L: -17.68 pts

- 2018/19 P/L = +10.97 pts from 112 pts staked (9.79% ROI
- 2017/18 P/L = +20.09 pts from 128 pts staked (15.69% ROI)
- 2016/17 P/L = +42.63 pts from 160 pts staked (26.64% ROI)
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked (6.4% ROI)
- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked (16.42% ROI)

Bet £10 On ACCAS or Bet Builders and Get a £2 Free Bet

Bet £10 on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders, at minimum combined odds of 2.0 (evens) and once the qualifying bet(s) have settled, you'll get a £2 free bet. Free bet valid 48 hours on Accas, Multiples or Bet Builders. T&Cs apply.

Recommended bets

Back Burnley to Win and Over 2.5 Goals v Norwich @ 2/1
Back Everton -1 to Win v Sheff Utd @ 3.02/1 (best bet)
Back Any Other Home Win @ 2.47/5 in Man City v Watford

*1pt per bet, 2pts per best bet