Saturday Premier League 3pm Tips: Could we be in for Stalemate Saturday?

Mike Norman
27 September 2019

Sean Dyche's Burnley will be difficult to beat at Villa Park says Mike

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Chelsea and Spurs are in action at the traditional time of 3pm on Saturday but Mike Norman is shunning the big boys and is instead recommending a trio of draws...

"What we do know is that this will be a very tight affair, and as I always say if you have a match-up where you can't split the two teams and yet the Draw price is the biggest option in the Match Odds, then go for it."

Back the Draw @ 3.55/2 in Aston Villa v Burnley

Tight game in store at Villa Park

Aston Villa 2.466/4 v Burnley 3.1511/5; Draw 3.55/2

Aston Villa find themselves in the relegation zone after six games of the season, but as I said a few weeks ago, their low points total is perhaps not a fair reflection of their ability.

Dean Smith's men have lost both away games to north London sides Tottenham and Arsenal, yet they led in both of those clashes and right up until the last few minutes were heading towards a well-deserved draw.

At Villa Park they've done okay, beating Everton and drawing with West Ham so we know that on their day they can give the big boys a game and are more than a match for the teams expected to finish around mid-table. True, they've had a few disappointing defeats but I think Villa's inconsistent nature is just typical of most Premier League sides at the start of the new season.

There really isn't much to say about Burnley. We all know what you get from Sean Dyche's men; a very well organised side that will give their all and a team that can be very difficult to beat.

Like Villa, the Clarets have performed well on the road without getting their full reward. They performed well at Arsenal before losing narrowly, they led at Wolves before conceding a stoppage-time equaliser, and they were always in the game at Brighton and grabbed a point with a late goal of their own.

So what we have here I believe is two evenly-matched teams that are both capable of winning on their day. But trying to predict who that team will be is night on impossible. What we do know is that this will be a very tight affair, and as I always say, if you have a match-up where you can't split the two teams and yet the Draw price is the biggest option in the Match Odds, then go for it.

All square on the south coast

Bournemouth 2.568/5 v West Ham 2.915/8; Draw 3.7511/4

This is another game that really is impossible to call in regards to picking a winner. It's fair to say that you really wouldn't be surprised whichever team took the three points, and that the most likely outcome is a draw.

Both teams are on recovery missions after their humiliating midweek defeats in the EFL Cup. Admittedly both Eddie Howe and Manuel Pellegrini made wholesale changes to their regular starting line-ups but both teams were simply not at the races in defeats to League one outfits Burton (2-0) and Oxford (4-0) respectively.

Ignoring those midweek cup defeats and both the Cherries and the Hammers go into this game in decent league form following convincing wins last weekend. They actually sit fifth and sixth in the table with just one point separating them. West Ham are fifth and could climb to second with a victory and other results going their way. Bournemouth are sixth and could also move up a few places with a win.

In summary then, both teams are almost in identical form. There's little to split them in league positions, they both recorded impressive league wins last time out, and they both suffered shock defeats in the cup in midweek. That 3.7511/4 Draw price makes more appeal the more you consider it.

Consider also that since the Cherries were promoted only once has there been more than a single goal between these two teams in all their meetings (and that was thanks to a stoppage-time goal in Bournemouth's 2-0 victory last season), and that two of their last four clashes ended all-square. The Draw - as the outsider price in the Match Odds market - is the logical choice then.

Eagles too short to see off Canaries

Crystal Palace 2.01/1 v Norwich 4.1; Draw 3.8514/5

The league results of Crystal Palace so far this term probably sum up better than any other team how tough the Premier League has been from a betting perspective in the early weeks.

The Eagles have won two, lost two and drawn two of their six league games so far but some of those results - a win at Old Trafford and a defeat to Sheffield United for example - went against what was expected while a big defeat at Tottenham could easily have been predicted.

In other words, some days teams will perform exactly as you expect and on others they can make a complete fool out of you. It's largely been the latter for myself this term.

There have been 60 Premier League games so far this season and almost a third of those (17) have finished all-square. If you filter out matches where one side was trading at 1.330/100 or lower and the outcome was a win for the strong favourites - i.e most of Man City and Liverpool's games - then it's roughly 35% of the more evenly-matched games have ended level. In theory then, any draw price above 3.02/1 in games that you find difficult to call is actually representing great value.

You probably know where I'm going with this prediction then, but I really don't have any confidence in Crystal Palace landing the odds at 2.01/1 against a Norwich team that beat Manchester City two outings ago, especially given that the Canaries have the second worst defensive record this term yet they rank in the top third for goals scored.

I just feel that this game will be far closer than the Match Odds suggest, and that it's hard to have any confidence in backing either of the teams to win. The logical thing to do then is back another level game at 3.8514/5, a price that is far bigger statistically than what we should be getting given how similar match-ups have ended this term.

For more tips and insight on the weekend action, watch the latest Football...Only Bettor podcast, as host Caroline Barker is joined by Kevin Hatchard, Andy Brassell and Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe to discuss all the best betting angles

You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73

Mike's 2019/20 Season P/L:

Staked: 24 pts
Returned: 4.72 pts
P/L: -19.28 pts

- 2018/19 P/L = +10.97 pts from 112 pts staked (9.79% ROI
- 2017/18 P/L = +20.09 pts from 128 pts staked (15.69% ROI)
- 2016/17 P/L = +42.63 pts from 160 pts staked (26.64% ROI)
- 2015/16 P/L = +14.99 pts from 234 pts staked (6.4% ROI)
- 2014/15 P/L = +35.30 pts from 215 pts staked (16.42% ROI)

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Recommended bets

Back the Draw @ 3.55/2 in Aston Villa v Burnley (best bet)
Back the Draw @ 3.7511/4 in Bournemouth v West Ham
Back the Draw @ 3.8514/5 in Crystal Palace v Norwich

*1pt per bet, 2pts best bet