Premier League Relegation Betting: Black Cats can claw their way out of danger

Joe Dyer
04 January 2017

Defoe's goals can secure Sunderland's Premier League future

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The Premier League takes an FA Cup-enforced break so Joe Dyer took the chance to assess the main runners and riders in Betfair's relegation market.

"Ten game form puts Sunderland in the top half of the table and, although Moyes has talked of the squad’s weaknesses and the club do not plan to strengthen, I think the former Everton manager is the man for the relegation dogfight. They are a lay in the current betting."

The main relegation protagonists have all played 20 games and the Betfair market has decided that seven teams are genuine contenders for the drop.

And that septet can be split into two groups with the current bottom three all odds-on and the other four trading at 3/1 and above.

Bottom of the table Hull City head the pack, trading at just 1.192/11 to go down, followed by 1.564/7 Sunderland and 1.75/7 Swansea.

Burnley are the next shortest in the market at 3.953/1, despite holding an eight point advantage over 18th-placed Sunderland.

Crystal Palace, defeated 2-1 at home by Swansea in Sam Allardyce's first home game in charge, are just a point above the drop zone and can be backed at 4.77/2.

Middlesbrough 6.05/1 and Watford 7.413/2 round out the group of teams in the betting danger zone with 17.016/1 West Ham the next shortest in the market.

Is it a done deal then that the current bottom three are the relegated trio come May 21? Let's run through the seven endangered outfits.

Hull City - A harmless lay with new manager imminent

Hull are the obvious starting point. The club sacked manager Mike Phelan late on Tuesday night, and look set to appoint former Estoril, Sporting Lisbon and Olympiakos manager Marco Silva on a six-month contact in a bid to stay up.

But with Hull's owners keen on a sale, the manager only staying for an initial six month deal and the club marooned at the bottom of the league, Silva may struggle to make any meaningful signings and will likely have to work with the current playing squad.

Of course, the Portuguese manager could be an inspirational figure and there is only a three point gap to 17th-placed Palace, so 1.21/5 may be a harmless lay to some.

Sunderland - Defoe's goals can keep Sunderland clear

Sunderland are above Swansea in the table, admittedly only on goal difference, but trade at a shorter price in the betting. I'm not sure that's right. The Black Cats have stuck with David Moyes in spite of a woeful start to the season and that continuity looks to be helping them now with results on the up.

And, in Jermain Defoe, they have a proven goalscorer, which is a real weapon in the top-flight. Rumours of a Defoe transfer to West Ham are worrisome but his departure would be so disastrous to the team that any sale should be classed as unlikely right now.

Ten game form puts Sunderland in the top half of the table and, although Moyes has talked of the squad's weaknesses and the club do not plan to strengthen, I think the former Everton manager is the man for the relegation dogfight. The club will lose a few performers to the African Cup of Nations over the next few weeks, but for me they are still a lay in the current betting.

Swansea - Fixture list against a swift turnaround

The Swans have just appointed Paul Clement as manager, having sacked Bob Bradley after a three month, 11-game stint, the American replacing Francesco Guidolin in early October. The Welsh outfit must settle in under the new manager as fast as possible with Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea all to be played in the next two months. Clement could well begin March still in the relegation places, and possibly even bottom of the lot.

Burnley - Away form needs to improve in final fixtures

Burnley's relatively lofty position is down to superb home form - the club's seven wins the equal of Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs. Sean Dyche's team have played 11 of their 20 at Turf Moor, however, so the last 18 will see the relegation fourth favourites on the road most weeks. With just one point gained on their travels Dyche will have to conjure some improvement there to avoid a descent towards the bottom three as the season draws to a close. There may be some trading value in the 3.953/1 on offer though that price may grow bigger still as January brings a pair of fixtures in front of the faithful. Of the last 15 fixtures Burnley play just six at home - that may be the time to take a punt on the Clarets going down.

Crystal Palace - This may be a bigger task than Allardyce assumed!

In Allardyce, Palace have appointed the finest firefighter in Premier League history but he has made an inauspicious start with defeats in his first two games at the helm and there are genuine fears among the fanbase that the club will go down. An injury to Christian Benteke is a worry, but even without the Belgian forward, Palace's squad looks too good to go down, especially with Allardyce around. The fixture list over the next three months is relatively kind and they should pull clear.

Middlesbrough - Defence first for Karanka's men

Is a good defence enough to keep you up? That is the question Boro fans will be pondering. Only Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester United have conceded fewer goals than Aitor Karanka's side, but 17 goals scored is the joint worst in the division alongside Hull. Rudy Gestede has signed from Aston Villa, but it would be a surprise were he to solve their scoring problems given a rate of 10 goals in 55 matches for Villa.

Watford - Sliding Hornets could be a value punt for the drop

Watford enjoyed a bright opening to the campaign, but a disastrous run of form has seen the Hornets pick up seven points from the last 10 matches and they look a club on the slide. Injuries have taken their toll and if the rot has set in they could find themselves inching their way towards the bottom three, although the seven point cushion is a more than handy barrier.

Recommended Bet
Lay Sunderland @ 1.564/7