Premier League: Travel-sick Man City to fall short in title race

Manuel Pellegrini has yet to master the art of winning away

Lewis Jones spat coffee all over his computer screen this morning when he saw how short Manchester City were for the Premier League title. He is preaching to the masses to lay the Citizens for all their worth...

"In 2013, Manchester City have taken just 18 points from a possible 45 on the road in the Premier League. An average point haul usually racked up by a team floating in mid-table obscurity rather than challenging for major honours."

If you had used the Jekyll & Hyde theory when betting on Manchester City this season it would have left your wallet bursting at the seams.

Dr Jekyll has been developing the formula for home games while dastardly Mr Hyde is poisoning City's title challenge on the road.

After 11 games the Premier League title candidates sit eighth, six points inferior of league leaders Arsenal despite their home form bordering on perfection.

In Manchester, they have a record that reads: five games, five spectacular wins with 20 goals scored and just two conceded.

Meanwhile, the travelling City faithful have had to endure four woeful defeats on the road, including Sunday's futile 1-0 reverse at relegation-threatened Sunderland.

In 2013, the Citizens have taken just 18 points from a possible 45 on the road in the Premier League. An average point haul usually racked up by a team floating in mid-table obscurity rather than challenging for major honours.

Yet when assessing Betfair's Premier League outright market, it's clear that punters are still banking on Manuel Pellegrini's men to run out victors in the title race as they are heading up the betting at 3.8514/5.

It's making my brain ache trying to work out what is causing these nimrods to plunge down money on the terrible travellers.

Mind you, this is a great result for us layers, who can fill our boots and get City firmly in the book.

When assessing previous Premier League champions, only Manchester United (6) in the 1995/96 season lost more than five games away from home in a season, suggesting that City only can afford one more away-day slip up whilst maintaining this perfect home record throughout the season.

Both feats will be extremely hard to accomplish, especially when they still face tricky trips to Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool.

Furthermore, Championship winning teams are based upon maintaining supreme stability and continuity within the back four. Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic were mainstays in Man Utd's multiple title-winning side between 2007-2010 while Vincent Kompany and Joleon Lescott were equally as dominant when Roberto Mancini's men landed the title two seasons ago.

At present, City are a mess in that department.

The absence of Kompany through a thigh injury has hit them hard and tinkering Pellegrini fielded his eighth different centre-back pairing of the season in the defeat at the Stadium of Light.

With such a weak base City will continue to leak goals away from the Etihad Stadium and layers should be getting stuck in to any price shorter than 4.003/1.

Best bet: Lay Man City for the title @ 3.8514/5

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