Premier League Top Goalscorer Betting: Kane a great price to win third Golden Boot

Tottenham striker Harry Kane
Harry Kane looks a great price to win a third Golden Boot says Mike
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It's not just the Premier League title race that is catching the attention of all football fans, the battle to win the Golden Boot is shaping up to be a thrilling side show and Mike Norman fancies a previous winner to take the honours...

"Kane will need to score at least 13 or 14 goals to be in with a chance but he's most certainly capable. Kane scored a remarkable 16 goals in his final 12 games of the 2016/17 season, while he only needs to improve a tad on the 12 goals he scored from February onwards in 2015/16.

Manchester City have returned to the head of the Premier League winner market after the latest round of games saw them close the gap on Liverpool at the top of the table to just three points, and there's every likelihood that the Citizens will be looking down on everyone else following their midweek game with Everton on Wednesday night.

Pep Guardiola's men are now available to back at [1.93] to retain their Premier League crown, while the Reds have drifted to [2.4] following their Monday night draw with West Ham. Tottenham meanwhile have shortened to [18.5] after their late win over Newcastle has them just five points adrift of the leaders.

But putting the Premier League title race to one side for now there's another fascinating battle brewing up involving not just three of the big six clubs, but five of them. And it's the race to be crowned the league's Top Goalscorer that thoroughly deserves closer inspection.

Cream has most certainly risen to the top

A quick glance at the top of the goalscoring charts makes for mouthwatering viewing. Mohamed Salah is out in front having scored 16 Premier League goals this term, but he's just one ahead of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who in turn is just one ahead of both Sergio Aguero and Harry Kane.

Eden Hazard with 12 goals, completes the world class list; a summary of which can be seen below with prices to back prior to Manchester City's game at Everton.

16 - Mohamed Salah [2.32]
15 - Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang [5.4]
14 - Sergio Aguero [3.8]
14 - Harry Kane [13.5]
12 - Eden Hazard [50.0]


Hazard apart, a case can be made for them all

With just two goals separating the top four strikers in the current standings I'm long odds-on to win the prize of 'stating the obvious' when I say that any of them can win the Golden Boot from here.

Salah's tally of 32 goals goals last season was the highest required to win a Golden Boot since Alan Shearer scored 34 goals in a campaign some 25 years ago. Crucially however, the Liverpool hitman had 19 goals to his name at this stage of the season last term, three more than his current tally.

It's unlikely then that 32 goals will be required to win this season's award, a tally of 28-30 is probably going to be closer to the number; 28.6 has been the average number of goals scored by the Premier League's Top Goalscorer during the last five seasons.

That means that from now to the end of the season, to get to a winnable number, one of Salah, Aguero, Aubameyang or Kane will need to average around a goal per game if staying injury/suspension free. But three of those players trade at [5.4] or less to win the Golden Boot. The other can be backed at [13.5].

Been there and got the t-shirt

From the month of February onwards last season, Aubameyang scored 10 league goals in 13 games, a very respectable number. However, a repeat would see him reach 25 goals for this campaign, a tally that is likely to be at least one or two short of finishing as the Premier League's top goalscorer.

Of the five strikers in contention, Hazard has by far the worst record of scoring goals from February onwards. He scored just four in his final 13 games last season, four in the 2015/16 season, and even his tally of seven goals in his final 14 games of the 2016/17 season is nowhere near good enough. Sitting on 12 goals currently, it's impossible to see Chelsea's star man scoring 15 or 16 goals from now until May.

But it's a completely different story for Salah, Aguero and Kane, all of who have late season goalscoring form in the book, and of course, all have won a Golden Boot.

Salah scored 13 goals from February onwards last term, a repeat of that would see him reach 29 goals this season and give him every chance of winning his second consecutive Golden Boot. He's a worthy favourite at [2.32], but he looks very short and offers little value.


Because of injury Aguero played just five games last season from February onwards, scoring four goals. The previous season he scored just nine goals in 15 games, another tally that would see him fall short, though his 12 goals in 14 games to end the 2015/16 season is a tally that will give him a chance, even if he probably needs to add a few more.

The concern with Aguero is that with Manchester City competing on four fronts he's likely to be given time on the bench in some games, and you have to have serious doubts about him playing in all of City's remaining league games.

Tottenham striker Kane has by far the best record of scoring late in the season. He deserves his own little section.

Kane the bet with return from injury imminent

Harry Kane is currently out injured, which goes someway to explaining why he's available to back at [13.5] to be the the league's top goalscorer. But his return from injury could well be sooner than first expected and his late-season goalscoring form gives him every chance.

The 25-year-old will need to score at least 13 or 14 goals to be in with a chance but he's most certainly capable. Kane scored a remarkable 16 goals in his final 12 games of the 2016/17 season, while he only needs to improve a tad on the 12 goals he scored from February onwards in 2015/16.

Initially he was ruled out until early March, and if that turns out to be the case then he will miss Tottenham's next three league games at least, leaving him with just 10 matches to score his 13 or 14 goals. But even then I think his odds to win a Golden Boot are generous on this scenario.

But given Kane's Instagram post last week showing him almost in full training I can't imagine for one minute that he'll be absent for more than another fortnight. Sunday's game at home to Leicester will obviously come too soon, but with Spurs having the following FA Cup weekend off, Kane could well be back for the league game against Burnley on 23 February.

That will give the England international 12 league games to score the goals required to get somewhere around a tally that will give him an excellent chancing of winning his third Golden Boot. He represents an excellent bet at this stage.

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