Premier League Tips: Saints' England men to get back on track

While they may not have played their best for England, they've excelled for Southampton this season
While they may not have played their best for England, they've excelled for Southampton this season

The Premier League is back this weekend and Paul Robinson has taken a look at what the Betfair Sportsbook has to offer. Here are this week's selections:

"The Saints have played five away games so far this season and they’ve lost just once – which was also the only match they didn’t score in."

Back an Arsenal v Southampton draw @ 3.7 (27/10)  

Arsenal v Southampton  

Back the draw @ 3.7 (27/10)  
Back 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score market @ 1.83 (5/6)  

It's first versus third at the Emirates this Saturday and with the Saints in such fine form, they look like a decent bet to pick up a draw - a result they achieved at Old Trafford last month.

Arsenal suffered their first league defeat since the opening day of the season before the international break as they fell to a 1-0 loss at Manchester United. While it's not an easy ground to go to, Arsene Wenger will have to have been disappointed with that result as it was their best chance to get a win there in years.

The Gunners still have a two point cushion at the top however and with Theo Walcott back in the matchday squad, they have even more attacking options to choose from. There's still a nagging doubt that they are mentally weak though and how they bounce back from that defeat last time will be interesting.

Southampton are in dreamland right now and that has culminated in Jay Rodgriguez and Adam Lallana joining Rickie Lambert in making their England debuts this year. While the two new boys didn't set the world alight against Chile or Germany, they're sure to have a spring in their step as they return to club action.

The Saints have played five away games so far this season and they've lost just once - which was also the only match they didn't score in. Of the other four, they beat West Brom and Liverpool, and drew at Manchester United and Stoke - all good results.

This could end up being a bit of a coupon buster as Pochettino's men are still seemingly underrated by the oddsmakers. Avoiding defeat is a real possibility this weekend and that makes the draw a very attractive bet. I'm also convinced that they'll score and that makes 'Yes' in the BTTS market an enticing proposition.

Fulham v Swansea  

Back Fulham @ 3.2 (11/5) (Best Bet) 
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.1 (11/10)  

My best bet of the weekend comes from Craven Cottage as Fulham are exceptional value to beat fellow strugglers Swansea.

Martin Jol is a man under pressure as his Fulham side are third from bottom following three straight defeats. It's perhaps the manner of the losses that has been the most concerning though as they have folded early on in the game and looked completely clueless.

The angle for this selection though is that since their last outing they have appointed René Meulensteen as their new head coach to work alongside Jol. The Dutchman enjoyed huge success at Manchester United as part of the backroom staff and he looks well equipped to help improve the organisation and tactical awareness that the players seem to be lacking.

Swansea have gone under the radar as potential relegation candidates but the fact is that they're only two points ahead of Fulham and come into this match on the back of one win in six in the league.

Michael Laudrup has had to spread his squad thinly across domestic and European action and similar to Newcastle last season, it's the former that is suffering. 

Star forward Michu remains sidelined with injury and they had to come back from 2-0 at home to Stoke a fortnight ago to avoid defeat. Prior to that they'd lost the huge south Wales derby against Cardiff and before that they were held at the Liberty by West Ham.

This is almost in the home banker category for my money and the 3.2 (11/5) on offer should be snapped up immediately. If you want an additional bet then over 2.5 goals seems overpriced at odds-against given the fact that Fulham are suffering at the back.

Man City v Spurs - Live on Sky Sports 1 at 13:30 GMT

Back the draw @ 3.6 (13/5)  
Back Spurs 'Draw No Bet' @ 3.75 (11/4)  

Part one of Super Sunday comes from the Etihad this week and despite their utter dominance on home soil thus far, I like the look of Spurs picking up a positive result here.

Five wins from five home outings for an aggregate score of 20-2 should have Manchester City higher up than eighth in the table. They haven't been able to replicate that on the road though as it's just four points from a possible 18 and they signed off for the international break with a 1-0 defeat at second bottom Sunderland.

Manuel Pelligrini will be relying on his team getting the job done this weekend and while there are no relevant stats to suggest a weakness in their home Premier League form, it's worth considering that they'll still be without the magic of David Silva and his creativity will be badly missed against a decent defence.

It's been a mixed campaign for Spurs thus far as they've had some poor results, yet are still only five points off first place. What isn't good enough though is a total of nine goals from 11 matches - especially when three of them were penalties.

On the flip side, with just six goals against, only Southampton have a better defensive record and they've conceded at least four less than any other club.

AVB was dealt a blow in the week with the news that Christian Eriksen has suffered an injury, but they have plenty of other creative forces in the squad - it's just getting them to gel together.

Bearing in mind their frustrations in front of goal, I'd imagine that Villas-Boas will set up to try and keep a clean sheet and then build from there. That makes the draw the best play as we've already seen that City can run out of ideas quite quickly against a well organised backline. 

As I've been unlucky in recent weeks with opposing short priced favourites but picking the wrong outcome - draw or win for their opponents - I'm going to hedge my bets a bit here and suggest backing Tottenham 'draw no bet' as well just the standard draw.

Recommended Bets
Back an Arsenal v Southampton draw @ 3.7 (27/10)  
Back 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score market for Arsenal v Southampton @ 1.83 (5/6)  
Back Fulham @ 3.2 (11/5) (Best Bet)  
Back Over 2.5 goals in Fulham v Swansea @ 2.1 (11/10)  
Back a Man City v Spurs draw @ 3.6 (13/5)  
Back Spurs 'Draw No Bet' @ 3.75 (11/4)  

Prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2013/14 P/L (1pt each bet, 2pts best bet)

Wagered: 70 pts
Returned: 50.22 pts
P/L: - 19.78 pts

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