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Premier League Tips: City to stutter on Super Sunday

Could it be arrivederci for Mancini in the summer?

"At Upton Park, West Ham, have only lost three of their dozen league games since returning to the top flight, winning five and drawing four."

Back a West Ham v Swansea draw @ 3.1 (21/10)

After the midweek action the Premier League is back in just over 48 hours time and Paul Robinson has selected what he believes are the best bets from the Betfair fixed odds markets. Here are his selections:

West Ham v Swansea
Back the draw @ 3.1 (21/10)  
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 (5/6)  

West Ham meet Swansea at Upton Park on Saturday afternoon and despite the Swans being in better form, I think the Hammers can take a point from the game.

Sam Allardyce has seen his side slip out of the top half of the table after picking up just a single point from a possible 12 in their last four fixtures. The three defeats did come away from home though and while the performances were poor and a mild cause for concern,  they are a much better side on home soil.

At Upton Park, West Ham, have only lost three of their dozen league games since returning to the top flight, winning five and drawing four. Their early season form was largely boosted by Kevin Nolan feeding off the striker, and he returned to goalscoring ways on Wednesday night at Fulham. A further boost for the Hammers is that Andy Carroll is back in contention after injury and he is the perfect foil for the aforementioned Nolan.

Swansea are five places and seven points better off than their opponents and they're also through to the Capital One Cup final. Michael Laudrup has done a superb job of carrying on Brendan Rodgers' good work and while they looked a bit open at the back earlier on in the campaign, the defence have been in top form in recent weeks.

The Swans have kept four clean sheets in their last half dozen games in all competitions and they've only lost one of their last 11. Seven of those were draws and they've drawn three of their last four away matches in the league, all 0-0.

This has all the makings of a low scoring draw, so not only do I recommend backing a stalemate at a generous 3.1 (21/10), under 2.5 goals is definitely worth a bet at 1.83 (5/6).

Wigan v Southampton
Back the draw @ 3.2 (11/5)  
Back a 2-2 correct score @ 11.0 (10/1)
 

Wigan host Southampton on Saturday and like the match above, I expect it to end with the spoils shared.

The Latics have improved a bit in recent weeks and they've lost just one of their last six in all competitions. After overcoming tricky away cup ties, they fought back from 2-0 at Stoke to draw 2-2 on Tuesday and that should put an extra spring in their step ahead of the weekend.

Defending has been an issue for Roberto Martinez's side, especially at the DW as they are yet to keep a clean sheet there this season and they've conceded two or more in every league game bar two. They've lost four of their last five, although they did face some tricky tasks in the form of both Manchester clubs and Arsenal.

Southampton put in a spirited performance at Old Trafford on Wednesday but despite Alex Ferguson proclaiming them to be the best side they've faced at home this term, they couldn't find an equaliser and lost 2-1. 

Mauricio Pochettino has seemingly done enough to already win over most Saints fans though as the protests against Nigel Adkins' sacking haven't really materialised. He drew with Everton in his first game in charge but they were the better team and deserved the win by all accounts.

Southampton have drawn three of their last five on the road and they haven't failed to score since their trip to Anfield at the start of December. Another draw looks the stand out bet here and with both teams somewhat shaky at the  back, a 2-2 correct score at 11.0 (10/1) is worthy of investment.

Man City v Liverpool
Back the draw @ 3.3 (23/10)  
Back Liverpool Draw No Bet @ 3.2 (11/5)
 

This week's Super Sunday comes from the Etihad as Manchester City host Liverpool, live on Sky Sports One at 16:00. The Reds have got their act together in the league and I think the Betfair market has underestimated their chances for this one.

Manchester City couldn't break down QPR on Tuesday night and the 0-0 draw means they now trail United by seven points again. With no European football left, Roberto Mancini's future could look bleak if he can't deliver a second Premier League title this summer.

Prior to that draw at Loftus Road, City had been in good form, winning their previous six in all competitions. Sergio Aguero is back from injury but something doesn't seem to be quite clicking for them this term and the absence of skipper, Vincent Kompany, could prove vital for this match.

Liverpool blew a two goal lead at the Emirates on Wednesday to draw 2-2 with Arsenal but the performance was good and it at least put the debacle at Oldham behind them. The Reds have been in good form in the league, thrashing QPR, Sunderland and Norwich, and although they lost at Old Trafford, they were much better in the second half and could have taken a point.

Daniel Sturridge has added a bit more threat up front and Jamie Carragher's surprise return to the back four has made them into a much more solid unit as Martin Skrtel's form has dipped lately. Steven Gerrard is playing his best football for two years and the much maligned Jordan Henderson is finally showing what he can do now he's being played in his favoured position.

Manchester City are just too short in the match odds market for my money so I'm going to recommend the draw at 3.3 (23/10) and also a cheeky Liverpool Draw No Bet at 3.1 (21/10) meaning that if the game finishes in a draw, the stake will be returned.

Recommended Bets
Back a West Ham v Swansea draw @ 3.1 (21/10)  
Back under 2.5 goals in West Ham v Swansea @ 1.83 (5/6)  
Back a Wigan v Southampton draw @ 3.2 (11/5)  
Back a 2-2 correct score between Wigan and Southampton @ 11.0 (10/1)  
Back a Man City v Liverpool draw @ 3.3 (23/10)  
Back Liverpool Draw No Bet v Man City @ 3.2 (11/5) 

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

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31 January 2013

Premier League

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